The post count just screams for number crunching and a graph!!!Originally Posted by imscotty
https://www.dropbox.com/s/dgikuxdtsu...osts.xlsx?dl=0
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Any chance Scot is napping before pushing on through the night? I would imagine at this point he has no choice but to rest when he can.
Odds are looking pretty good.
Before today, it seemed like the thread about Inch Worm's disappearance had the most posts... but this thread blew by the other thread's post count.
your best work yet!! Looks like we just may beat scott to 2189 after all!
Thunderstorm moving through my area. Had to come back downstairs and calm the poor terrified dog.
... and check SJ's status, of course.
That's all I can figure. He hasn't moved in two hours. If he doesn't make any more significant progress before morning I'm lowering his odds. By a lot. Mileage today was important. He's gotta be wrecked.
AT02, LT 03-04, BMT05, NPT06, Haute Route07, Abol Ridgerunner 07/08, EBC Nepal trek 10
I guess I should do my part since I have read almost every post.
I've gone from checking once a day to 3 or 4 times, just so I don't have to read 10 pages at a time!
So as you can see, for the last few days, our post count has been fairly consistent (slope = 227.5 post/day, R^2=.9943). If we take this linear regression line, set y=2189 and solve for x, we find that we are on pace to get to 2189 posts 5 hrs, 24 min, and 3 seconds before the record time of 46.472 days. Just like SJ, the finish could be a nail biter, but I am confident in our dedication and awesomeness.
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maybe he's pacing himself so he can be on whitecap at daybreak so he can see the K.
Oh my! I am sincerely impressed!
One theory: Scott is doing the View Katahdin from Whitecap in the am thing, and will, feeling its pull, do a continuous hike from there to K summit.
Another: He's getting some sleep between his last two big hills before K, in an effort to recover from the clanging they impose on his frame, will hike as far as he can tomorrow and get as close as possible to Baxter and K, then hike on in to the summit on Sunday, getting to KSC somewhere around noon and to K summit just under the wire.
I'm thinking 2 is right, and put his odds at getting this around 70%. He's running on fumes, duct tape, adrenaline and baling wire. It might be enough, might not, but it looks to be awfully close. Or he might pull a 70 tomorrow and stroll in Sunday from Abol Bridge. At this point, my money's on 2 and near win or a near miss. Probably a win.
The more miles, the merrier!
NH4K: 21/48; N.E.4K: 25/67; NEHH: 28/100; Northeast 4K: 27/115; AT: 124/2191
If he has stopped for the night, I don't think he'll make it in time.
Just my opinion.
I agree he is whacked!
Don't let your fears stand in the way of your dreams
This video was posted on Gary Allen's Facebook page 2 hours ago. Not sure what time it was taken but it certainly looks like night hiking.
https://www.facebook.com/GaryAllen26...3050389389369/
Everything is easy until you do it.
Could someone repost the article about JPD, I missed the 1st time thru and can't find it now.
Thanks
2 am looks like Scott might be near Logan Brook Lean to with about 71 miles left....Go Scott Go
Moses is my 2012 Trail name and was given to me at Fontana Dam
Wow. I am up way to late following Hardrock - and just noticed Scott has pinged back into DeLorme. Not sure what is up with DeLorme during the 4.5 hour gap. Anyways, he is past Hay Mountain (so much for daylight view of Katahdin) and coming off of White Cap Mountain 20 hours after he started the day and 42 miles, 2.1 mph.
72 miles to go before Katahdin summit - 39 hours or less and he has the record.
Wow! This is going to be close. He needs some sleep. But how much should he sleep?
Sleeping 3 more hours forces him to hike 2 mph for the record.
Sleeping 5 more hours forces him to hike 2.12 mph for the record.
Sleeping 7 more hours (like he probably wants to) forces him to hike 2.25 mph for the record.
And those numbers are just to break the record by mere minutes.
Cool, it would appear the race is on, all is well...and he's comin' around the clubhouse turn.
Arguably, except for the last 5 miles he has the easiest part of the trail left which should give him some breathing room.
OK, I have 49.4 miles for yesterday. 71.4 miles to go to Katahdin, assuming Scott is now at Logan Branch lean-to.
We're into the end-game.
We'll probably be debating strategy all day today (Saturday). It seems like there are two options:
1. Run it all.
2. Run 56.3 to Abol Bridge. Sleep. Finish the last 15.1 to Katahdin on Sunday.
I think it would require a superhuman effort to finish in one shot, with the cumulative exhaustion of the past 40-some days.
Also, if Scott breaks the records, it will now be by less than 24 hours, and probably considerable less than this.
(trailname: Paul-from-Scotland)
And that make 4
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