Scott Jurek on Appalachian Trail

[fiddlehead]

Good article today from the Roanoke Times today. With photos. At the end of 15 days he's done 708 miles. That's 47.2 miles average a day. I believe JPD's average was exactly 47 miles per day.

I've got to guess that he might think he's doing fine being ahead of her by .2 mpd.
But, does he have any idea how hard it's going to be from Glencliff to the Bigelows?

I'm thinking he's got to pick it up now with the easiest part of the trail just in front of him. (Roanoke to Duncannon)

[Lone Wolf]

he needs to go past road crossings and camp in the woods to get extra miles

[ScottS]

If he gets to Katahdin it's going to look like Forrest Gump.

[map man]

It looks like he did 98.4 miles from Catawba to Buena Vista on June 11 and 12, though there is no breakdown of the two individual days on Facebook as of now (his first 17 days are 25.4 miles behind JPD's last 17 days, in 2015 trail miles).

Other than slowly chipping away at JPD's lead day after day, I see two possible opportunities for Jurek to pick up significant miles on JPD. And one of those opportunities is NOT the stretch between Glencliff and Stratton, as a previous poster speculated. The 35 miles per day she did in that section may look vulnerable from one's armchair, but I think the fact that JPD did that stretch in just 6 days was one of the most impressive parts of her 2011 hike. The two opportunities I see are:

1) JPD had hoped to significantly increase her miles per day after passing Glencliff, but she "only" averaged 41 miles per day in the four days after leaving the White Mountains. Her GI tract decided to give her trouble and this illness was at its worst on her 12th day as she entered Vermont. That 12th day she had to stop at around 36 miles, well short of where she had intended. And the next two days were also shorter days as she recovered. So that four day stretch presents a potential opportunity for Jurek to pick up perhaps 20 to 30 miles.

2) JPD elected NOT to hike through the night on her last night on the trail. She did hike well into the night and covered 60 miles on that second-to-last day, but she did stop to sleep for part of that night (she got a little less than half a night's sleep, if I remember right). Jurek has experience with 24 hour runs, and even longer, and so it's possible he might elect to hike through the night, if the record is within reach. Perhaps he might pick up around 10 miles that way, potentially.

Of course Vermont and then the last two hiking days are a long ways off yet and lots can happen between now and then, but that's where I (from my armchair) see the best chances for Jurek to save some time vs. JPD.

[Odd Man Out]

It looks like he did 98.4 miles from Catawba to Buena Vista on June 11 and 12, though there is no breakdown of the two individual days on Facebook as of now (his first 17 days are 25.4 miles behind JPD's last 17 days, in 2015 trail miles)...

It will be interesting to see where he makes it tonight. If he continues with another 50 mile day, it will put him in a spot without any road crossings. There is a crossing around 40 miles up on the BRP and then no others until Rockfish Gap, but that would be a 55 mile day, which he hasn't done yet. Google maps shows a jeep trail going up to the Paul Wolfe shelter which is right at 50 miles, but I don't know if it is a real road that his support vehicle could navigate. It's about 1.2 miles from the shelter to the nearest real road.

Also, I have him 42.4 miles behind, but this formula credits JPD as hiking at a pace of 60 mpd on her last partial day on the trail. Below are the miles per day and mileposts calculated for a record NOBO hike based on JPD's numbers. I added a half mile to Scott's target due to the detour reported in MA. You can see the section Map Map suggests as his best opportunity to make up the deficit starts around milepost 1600 which right at the MA/VT border. From there to Crawford Notch, he only needs to average 40.5 MPD to match JPD's pace. Send me a PM if you are interested in how I derived the equation to calculate these.

Day	MPD	Miles
1	60.2	60.2
2	57.0	117.3
3	50.6	167.9
4	47.4	215.3
5	48.2	263.4
6	49.6	313.0
7	46.8	359.8
8	46.2	406.0
9	47.8	453.8
10	49.0	502.8
11	48.0	550.8
12	49.6	600.4
13	49.0	649.4
14	47.2	696.6
15	49.2	745.8
16	51.4	797.2
17	51.4	848.6
18	50.8	899.4
19	49.2	948.6
20	51.4	1000.0
21	51.4	1051.4
22	52.8	1104.2
23	53.0	1157.2
24	51.8	1209.0
25	47.0	1256.0
26	48.0	1304.0
27	49.4	1353.4
28	46.8	1400.2
29	49.2	1449.4
30	48.8	1498.2
31	48.6	1546.7
32	48.4	1595.1
33	45.6	1640.7
34	42.8	1683.5
35	39.8	1723.2
36	39.0	1762.2
37	41.2	1803.4
38	34.9	1838.3
39	31.7	1870.0
40	32.9	1903.0
41	33.9	1936.9
42	39.4	1976.3
43	41.6	2017.8
44	43.8	2061.6
45	45.4	2107.0
46	49.0	2156.0
46.472	33.7	2189.7

[MuddyWaters]

I feel confident he has a plan.

[Scrum]

Is he going over the Priest today? I wonder if he has any trail sins to confess.

[Hikerhead]

[QUOTE=Odd Man Out;1978067]It will be interesting to see where he makes it tonight. If he continues with another 50 mile day, it will put him in a spot without any road crossings. There is a crossing around 40 miles up on the BRP and then no others until Rockfish Gap, but that would be a 55 mile day, which he hasn't done yet. Google maps shows a jeep trail going up to the Paul Wolfe shelter which is right at 50 miles, but I don't know if it is a real road that his support vehicle could navigate. It's about 1.2 miles from the shelter to the nearest real road.

Also, I have him 42.4 miles behind, but this formula credits JPD as hiking at a pace of 60 mpd on her last partial day on the trail. Below are the miles per day and mileposts calculated for a record NOBO hike based on JPD's numbers. I added a half mile to Scott's target due to the detour reported in MA. You can see the section Map Map suggests as his best opportunity to make up the deficit starts around milepost 1600 which right at the MA/VT border. From there to Crawford Notch, he only needs to average 40.5 MPD to match JPD's pace. Send me a PM if you are interested in how I derived the equation to calculate these.

A short side trail will take him to the Parkway at the Humpback Rock parking lot.

[lemon b]

Doesn't going NB create a high degree of risk that the river levels in Maine and the weather in general will be pretty much a key factor in breaking the known record? Jen certainly did set an extremely high bar.

[ShelterLeopard]

All I can say, is I think it is pretty durned cool that a human can do this. Props to Jurek!

[Odd Man Out]

He's hiking very late tonight. His GPS tracker had him still moving at 11:40 PM coming down Humpback Mtn. Maybe he will stop at Humpback Gap?

[rocketsocks]

He's hiking very late tonight. His GPS tracker had him still moving at 11:40 PM coming down Humpback Mtn. Maybe he will stop at Humpback Gap?

To freakin' hot to sleep, might as well log a few.

[ScottS]

Doesn't going NB create a high degree of risk that the river levels in Maine and the weather in general will be pretty much a key factor in breaking the known record? Jen certainly did set an extremely high bar.

I can't imagine his crew neglecting scouting those out and making sure the ropes or something else is in place.


Unrelated, I'm starting the Long Trail on July 1st and it looks like he's projected to hit that mark on June 29th...
So close.

[lemon b]

Best of luck. It is becoming more obvious that this type of mind boggling endeavor truly is a team effort.

[Just Bill]

I feel confident he has a plan.

Yar, not to worried about him at all.

Jen struggled in the whites with hypothermia and other issues that chased her for a few weeks. As she got onto her home turf things opened up for her in general. There's also something to be said for getting a few weeks into it to find your groove, no matter how hard you train.

Point being- Scott is from Minnesota, quite used to running pretty nasty stuff (sorta built a career out of it), and not as likely to suffer quite as much as the Southern Sweetie up north. You may even find that it will remind him of home and the Northwoods will treat him pretty kindly that time of year.

Perhaps you will find that Scott's schedule is not quite as silly as it seems, and that the Jurker from Minnesota has a pretty good understanding of the three seasons of summer that happen up north.

June, July, and August are vastly different seasons and conditions up there. If everyone feels that is the toughest part of the trail; why do folks keep insisting that it is best to take it on outside of primetime? July is vastly better than June and August is vastly better than July. On the flipside only a southerner used to the heat as JPD or MK is would dream of hiking in the heat of July and August down south. What's the difference on a record attempt if it gets dark at 8pm or 9 pm when you'll be walking in the dark regardless? Especially on a supported trip where you don't have to worry about batteries for your night hike lights and can swap in a fresh set every night if you wanted. It is still mystifying to me why hikers continue to insist on chasing daylight over trail conditions on a technical trail like the AT, and in an unforgiving area like Maine and New Hampshire.

While it's easy to say go SOBO, listen to the land and know thyself. I believe to play to your strengths and run for home.

Continued best of luck to Scott. He has long been an ambassador in the sport of running, as you can see already his ability to inspire and affect others is very strong. I hope the trail recruits him.

[fiddlehead]

I don't remember Minnesota having mountains.
But, maybe I missed something.
And I don't think he is planning on doing any hiking in August.
I agree that the south portion of the AT is way too hot for a northerner.

But, I do think he probably has a plan and (hopefully) knows what the white's entail.
Best of luck.

ps. one more thing: if he is really running (vs hiking), and the days are lighted from aprox 4 AM till 9 PM, why would he have to hike at night?

[CalebJ]

It's going to be -really- tight for him as time goes on. It seems like the number of people waiting for him at predictable road crossings is only getting larger, and he's (so far) been patient enough to speak to each of them, answer questions, take pictures, etc. I had the opportunity to meet him, Jenny, and Luis Escobar on Thursday morning and again on Saturday. Both times, all three proved to be both humble and kind. Wish I'd had time to travel further with him. The pace is actually pretty comfortable with no pack. Maybe 3.5 miles per hour on average - really tough for a long day, but easy enough if you just wanted to pace him for a few hours. The only time it got tough was when I stopped to talk to Luis as he went on. By the time I started moving again I'd lost about ten minutes, and that took nearly an hour to make up.
I'm pulling for him. He (and team) have a long, difficult road ahead of them but they're working very hard to make this happen.

[Another Kevin]

Perhaps you will find that Scott's schedule is not quite as silly as it seems, and that the Jurker from Minnesota has a pretty good understanding of the three seasons of summer that happen up north.

June, July, and August are vastly different seasons and conditions up there. If everyone feels that is the toughest part of the trail; why do folks keep insisting that it is best to take it on outside of primetime? July is vastly better than June and August is vastly better than July.

Yes, you understand the four seasons of the North Woods: Winter, June, July and August.

(As opposed to the four seasons of the Midwest: Almost Winter, Winter, Still Winter, and Construction.)

Go Scott go!

(I can only marvel from the sidelines. I'm slow.)

[Odd Man Out]

(As opposed to the four seasons of the Midwest: Almost Winter, Winter, Still Winter, and Construction.)

Like

BTW, he's not posted any official updates that I have seen since day 15. But his GPS tracker has been on and it indicates he stopped on day 16 at Jennings Creek Road, day 17 at US 60, day 18 at Humpback Gap, and day 19 (today) he got to Smith Roach Gap at 8:56 PM with no GPS updates since then, so maybe he stopping there today. If so, he is averaging 47.5 miles per day. I have him about 7 miles ahead of a linear pace (equal miles per day) and about 46 miles behind the JPD pace, but as already pointed out, she had some advantages in the southern section and he may have some advantages in the northern section.

[CalebJ]

He definitely was at US60/Long Mountain Wayside on Friday night, and made it to the Tye River at lunch time on Saturday. We met him at the top of the climb out of US60 and ran with him as far as Salt Log Gap. A couple of other runners jumped in at Hog Camp Gap and were doing 8 or so miles with him, and a few more came in South from the Tye River, then went North with him for maybe 20 miles. Not sure if he had many local people pacing him yesterday, but I think Karl Meltzer was jumping in yesterday or today.