Not doomed from the moment of leaving the car. She could have hiked for an hour or two, turned around, and been just fine.Originally Posted by egilbe
Once she decided to summit Adams, her fate was sealed. Had she headed back down the Valley Way after summiting Madison, she would have lived. It's easy to underestimate the conditions if your not familiar with how fast they can change and how strong the winds get as a cold front moves through.
Follow slogoen on Instagram.
I was disappointed that the article didn't expand on the timing aspects but I expect since it was a public interest story the general public would not be interested. I happen to live within sight of Madison and happened to be home sick that day and have commented previously that it was marginal day to begin with. When weather is coming into the area, it doesn't come in as a uniform wall of wind its starts high and works its way down. I have encountered many times where its been calm at Appalachia (the trailhead) and gusty not that far up. Valley Way is extremely sheltered almost all the way up, and most hikers regard it as the "emergency route" if you need to get down below treeline. I don't represent as having the same skill set or condition as the hiker in the article but I have hiked in the whites since 1987. More than a few times I have hiked up Valley Way in the winter only to find less than ideal conditions when the trail brakes cover about 100 yards at the most from the hut. One thing that does happen on Valley way is the upper 1/2 mile or so south of the valley way tentsite tends to fill up with snow and what is normally a bare boot up to that point can quickly become deep powder. With snowshoes its a lot of work and without snowshoes (one account say she had snowshoes, but most others say no) its a major effort that can add 45 minutes to an hour to go a very short distance. The problem is two fold, its a full body workout and then very rapidly at the end of it, the wind blasts in. Even if someone is good with moisture management its still a potential hypothermia spot.
Some days I might head up Madison if the conditions are less than ideal while other days I head home and chalk the hike up to exercise. Thus I don't fault anyone who has driven up from out of the area on heading up and hoping the weather is gong to get better. The article mentions that she was running late off schedule after she came off of Madison. The ascent up Madison starts in a small patch of trees but its soon has full exposure to west northwest winds and with the exception of a bit of shelter downwind of the ridge for a short distance its exposed. Generally when the winds are nasty on Madison they are considerably worse on Adams. Where judgment can be questioned is when the weather conditions rapidly worsen and conditions switch from marginal to dangerous. That's the point where a solo hiker needs to turn around and chalk it up as a place to visit another day.
Great perspective peakbagger. I wish I had seen this type if analysis before I went across the Presidentials. It was likely there somewhere. I saw lots of people taking about how tough the Osgood climb was, but little about the winds of Madison. At the top of Osgood I was thinking all was great. I found the difficulty of that climb greatly exaggerated. I was not prepared for the winds that soon appeared. Going by the hut, I thought the same would happen on Adams and Jefferson. It was very calm in comparison on those peaks. These are gratuitous and meaningless observations relative to the discussion. Just agreeing with your observations.
Last edited by BirdBrain; 04-17-2015 at 17:45.
In the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years. - Abraham Lincoln
From the latest article, "The White Mountains forecast for Feb. 15, 2015, called for a high of -20F. Shifting winds from the north starting at 45 to 60 mph and rising midmorning to 80 to 100 mph, with gusts up to 125 mph. Wind chills as low as -75F.
Prior articles state the forecast differently, such as this one from http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/201...j7K/story.html
"Bad weather was on the way. But while forecasts warned of blizzards in New Hampshire, the winds in the mountains were not predicted to be at their worst until later Sunday. Matrosova planned to hike down the south side of the range, past the Lakes of the Clouds, along the Ammonoosuc Ravine Trail and out to the Mount Washington Cog Railway by 6 p.m.
The outcome of deciding to climb into such conditions, and any plan that relies on "beating the weather", is usually not going to end well. There is some speculation that she didn't have that morning's higher summits forecast, which are typically available before 4 am, long before she left the trailhead. But it was also known the day before that a major storm was going to hit, with the predicted western edge of the storm track pretty much right on the Whites. By late afternoon or evening of the 15th at the latest, there was a high probability that there were going to be blizzard conditions, extreme cold, and 100+ mph winds. It was simply going to be one of the worst days of the 2015 winter on the higher summits. And anybody that made even a minimal effort knew that in advance. At an absolute minimum, they would get the latest forecast that morning before climbing, and stay below treeline in such conditions. And that doesn't mean just having bail out points/plans. Bail out plans are for the unpredictable, not the stuff we know are going to happen. When conditions are that marginal to begin with, and known to be worsening - not improving, they cross the line so quickly you don't have time to execute a bail out.
From the latest article, directly following the forecast, "But once Kate Matrosova set a goal, she wasn’t easily deterred."
Confidence is a virtue. Arrogance, not so much.
Last edited by 4eyedbuzzard; 04-17-2015 at 20:18.
"That's the thing about possum innards - they's just as good the second day." - Jed Clampett
The loss is tragic, and she executed a series of bad judgments. Call it what you will, but in the context she faced she made stupid decisions. No less tragic....
Here's a good article about a serious climber making sound judgments in harsh conditions. Full disclaimer: good friend of mine, who is a bit younger and one of the "kids" I used to take out on hiking trips in the Whites years ago. Still hit the trail occasionally with a few of them. :
http://blackdiamondequipment.com/en/...nk-sar-attempt
My position is that the only good that can come out of this tragedy is if people learn from it.
Many folks are questioning wisdom of Kate's hiking in really bad weather, but I think if she had her eyes set on a bigger mountain I would not be surprised if she wanted to experience what it feels like to be in such conditions. After all, no amount of reading about extreme wind and cold is a substitute for actually struggling through 80 mph wind in sub-zero temperatures and maybe she felt that she needed this experience to be ready for future expeditions.
This is exactly what I have been thinking. She probably felt strong enough to go to Adams and for whatever reason she thought that she would be able to get back. Instead, she ended up walking a tight-rope with no safety net beneath and got side-swept by a powerful wind.
While Kate's death was tragic I believe the outcome is not all negative. It forced me (and I suspect many others as well) to re-evaluate my knowledge of risks associated with hiking. After reading the story of her death, I actually enumerated all kinds of dangers that I could face on the trail and I asked myself: how much do I know about proper course of action in all of these situations? Would I make right decisions quickly and almost automatically like I can drive my car nowadays, or would it be more like trying to go 65 on a windy road during first driving lesson? Who knows, maybe one day I will make a right move in a tough situation and I will have to thank Kate for being better prepared to make such call.
I hope the hell I have the opportunity to be doing something I absolutly love when my time comes, even if it turns out to be not a great decision, and I also hope the choice to do that activity doesn't bring about the risk to others to try to come rescue or risk their own lives.
Don't recall if this link has been posted before. It is a reflection on the incident by Erik Thatcher, a member of the rescue team that found her body.
https://erikthatcherclimbs.wordpress...sovas-passing/
I thought about Kate yesterday as I summited Madison on as perfect a day as one can expect. I started at 7am and was at the car by 2pm. It was a leisurely hike. I can't imagine what it must have been like with no snowshoes or crampons. Madison itself is pretty rocky with rime ice starting to collect in the shadows making for some icy conditions. I would never try to attempt that climb in high winds.
Adams can wait for another day.
Interesting to see this thread bumped as I've been reading "Not Without Peril" all weekend. For anyone that loves or fears the Whites and hasn't read it, I highly recommend it!!! You'll be immersed in the tragedies of real, doomed hikers, and learn just how dangerous the Presidential Range is.
I bought it on Amazon after re-reading this thread. Just have a kindle sample until the book arrives. The deaths have a common theme.
I'm bumping this thread after reading "This is Where You Will Find Me" by Ty Gagne. A Good read with her planned itinerary, equipment lists and various risk assessment tecniques. He affirms some assumptions made in this thread two years ago.
Her death still haunts me somewhat.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
