PCTA sets limit on permits; maximum of 50 thru-hikers allowed to start each day

[Fairway]

http://www.pcta.org/2015/improvement...ronment-27304/

"A maximum of 50 permits will be allowed each day for long-distance hikers and horseback riders starting at or near the Mexican border."

Other improvements in southern California...

"Starting this year, two Leave No Trace specialists will provide information about minimizing the impact of travel and camping on the first 100 miles of the PCT from the Mexican border to Warner Springs during peak visitor use times."

"For the 2015 season, the Pacific Crest Trail Association will have a renewed focus on trail maintenance in Southern California. A new trail steward program, rolled out in October 2014, will improve monitoring of the PCT in southern California and result in more effective mitigation of trail user impacts."

[Donde]

What a utterly sensible concept. Protect the trail, prevent problems, manage resources. I applaud PCTA and the land management agencies concerned for trying to be proactive. I am sure there will be a learning curve and adjustments will be made, but good for them for responding to to the growth instead of chillin' on the sidelines (cough cough ATC) I hope this example can be built upon to releive similar issues faced elsewhere (cough cough BSP). Also this is another great reason to SOBO (okay maybe not "another" where PCT is concerned, hence I am attempting it NOBO this year, but any opportunity to plug for SOBOs).

Donde

AT NOBO 2010

Recovering NOBO since AT/LT SOBO 2013

[Dogwood]

GOOD! Here Here to the PCTA. Yippeeeee. YES, utterly sensible. Great timing too with the likely influx of additional interest this yr. What a braethe of fresh air despite some minor push back.

+1 to all Donde said!

[burger]

A couple of questions come up now: is anyone going to enforce the starting dates in a manner that has some teeth? SoCal doesn't have park rangers with the power to have you removed from the trail like they do on the JMT. The "Crest Runners" who will be on the trail will be there to give out information, not check permits, right?

And what happens when 50 starters a day isn't enough? The PCTA post indicated that they gave out 1500 thru-hiker permits in 2014. I'll bet it goes over 2000 this year. The window to start at Campo is roughly early April to early May (unless you enjoy hiking in 100+ degrees). Let's say 40 days. 40 days * 50 hikers per day = 2000. At the rate numbers are climbing, it will not be long before there is greater demand for permits than are available. So maybe this will turn into a de facto quota system. That's totally fine by me.

[Mags]

If I was a PCT hiker, I'd seriously consider SoBo....

[Coffee]

If I was a PCT hiker, I'd seriously consider SoBo....

That is my plan for the AT eventually but a SOBO PCT seems much harder than NOBO logistically and in terms of hiking window. At least it seemed hard enough to deter me from considering it beyond some basic background. One huge advantage, if someone is fast enough, is hitting the High Sierras in late season. I really liked the JMT in September weather conditions. But I am kind of looking forward to contrasting September with early season conditions since it will be totally different...

[Starchild]

Wondering if the PCT can support 50 per day, given the different environments how many can the AT support?

Also wondering about 'cheaters', and what actually consists of a start date? Can one drive up the day before, walk a step, go in for resupply and return the next day to continue?

[Coffee]

The other loophole might be people "starting" prior to kick off, then congregating at Lake Morena and then resuming the hike all at the same time at the conclusion of the kick off(s).

My impression is that this is a stopgap measure intended to somehow control the influx of hikers expected due to increased publicity. As of right now, no dates are full but I'm not sure that the quota limitation is well understood or even known at this time. If I had not happened to be on Facebook yesterday afternoon, I would be oblivious to the requirement.

[fireneck]

If I was a PCT hiker, I'd seriously consider SoBo....

Had I known all this a few months ago I would have planned my get (thru-hiker) rich quick job scheme a lot differently.

[DistantDreamer]

Long term, we are planning to try to thru-hike the PCT in 2020. Will this permit system be in place?

What happens when all the permits are full, no one else can come to thru-hike? If this is so, what is the total number that can try to thru-hike it then? Do you need a permit to start a section hike from the start, then say 600 miles in you decide to thru-hike?

[Malto]

Long term, we are planning to try to thru-hike the PCT in 2020. Will this permit system be in place?

What happens when all the permits are full, no one else can come to thru-hike? If this is so, what is the total number that can try to thru-hike it then? Do you need a permit to start a section hike from the start, then say 600 miles in you decide to thru-hike?

I wouldn't worry too much long term. We have had three straight low snow years with this year looking like the fourth. Throw in a couple years like 2010 and 2011 and you will see the numbers drop greatly especially after San Jacinto. It's being a while since there has been snow panic in the south.

i agree with folks like Postholer and Donna about the effect of kick off. While there is a relatively small perceived window it is much wider than what we see today. postholer has a register where he graphs start date from journals on his site. It used to be more accurate than it is today with more hikers, especially up younger ones doing Facebook or other means of journaling but year after after year the ten day window before and during kickoff has a higher then needed number of starts. The PCTA attempt at limiting this starts at 50 will do little other than limit the starters in that 10 day period to 500 and possibly push that high start window to 14 days.

at some point kickoff will change. When it does this problem will go away. (kickoff implies to the masses that this is the "right" time to start.) Then you will see this problem go away.

even if I am wrong above I still wouldn't fear. Start earlier, later or go SoBo. SoBo would be my choice. You either have to be a strong hiker, high miles, experienced in real snow and navigation or tough as nails in normal years. You immediately jump into serious snow and most SoBo start way too early which has historically caused the completion percentage to drop dramatically.

[Sly]

i agree with folks like Postholer and Donna about the effect of kick off. While there is a relatively small perceived window it is much wider than what we see today.

I don't agree the window is much wider for several reasons. In a normal snow year "Ray Day*" is June 15th. At an average hiking pace, leaving Campo at KO gets you to KM about that time. If it's a low snow year you could start about two weeks earlier but it's not too often you want to leave KM any time in May. (the last few years may be an exception but not the rule) As it is many hikers will start 10-14 days early. Of course, later starts require higher mileage, higher temps and a fewer natural water sources.

Even if KO closed shop, hikers would still leave around the same time periods. Hikers that attempted to hike too early are bound to bunch up at KM.

*Due to snowpack, the optimal day for leaving Kennedy Meadows

[burger]

I don't agree the window is much wider for several reasons. In a normal snow year "Ray Day*" is June 15th. At an average hiking pace, leaving Campo at KO gets you to KM about that time. If it's a low snow year you could start about two weeks earlier but it's not too often you want to leave KM any time in May. (the last few years may be an exception but not the rule) As it is many hikers will start 10-14 days early. Of course, later starts require higher mileage, higher temps and a fewer natural water sources.

Even if KO closed shop, hikers would still leave around the same time periods. Hikers that attempted to hike too early are bound to bunch up at KM.

*Due to snowpack, the optimal day for leaving Kennedy Meadows

+1 on this. Malto, iirc, is a very fast hiker. Your average PCT hiker is not especially fast. And since many of the hikers doing the PCT nowadays are new to thru-hiking, they don't have the speed or skills to handle the snowpack you'd get with a very early state or the 100-degree days and limited water availability you'd get with a late start.

[Sly]

Another way to look at it is if you leave around KO and hope to make it by Oct 1, which is pushing it, with about 12 days off, you need to hike 19 miles per day. Again, a much earlier start will likely get you to KM too soon.

[Coffee]

I think that going SOBO is a great way to get away from the crowds on the AT and I plan to go SOBO in 2016 or 2017 for sure. But the PCT is really quite different. Going SOBO in most years probably means starting safely in mid July. It's a race from day 1 to get into and out of the Sierra Nevada before winter sets in. If I thought I could consistently pull 30 mile days, I would probably be hiking SOBO this year but I've never hiked more than 500 miles in a single trip and my average comfortable pace has been in the low to mid 20s mpd range. I feel like I'd struggle to get past the Sierras. Also, I'd always have the concern at the back of my mind. Going NOBO, I'm totally confident that I'll be through Washington well before winter weather sets in. Barring injury, I'm definitely going to finish before September 15 and perhaps before September 1.

[Malto]

I don't agree the window is much wider for several reasons. In a normal snow year "Ray Day*" is June 15th. At an average hiking pace, leaving Campo at KO gets you to KM about that time. If it's a low snow year you could start about two weeks earlier but it's not too often you want to leave KM any time in May. (the last few years may be an exception but not the rule) As it is many hikers will start 10-14 days early. Of course, later starts require higher mileage, higher temps and a fewer natural water sources.

Even if KO closed shop, hikers would still leave around the same time periods. Hikers that attempted to hike too early are bound to bunch up at KM.

*Due to snowpack, the optimal day for leaving Kennedy Meadows

Agree with your logic on Ray day, average speed etc. BUT, go look at Postholers registry and go back several years. You will find that there is the highest cluster of hikers right around kickoff in spite of the date changing by a week or so every year. If hikers were pushing the Ray Day method of start date, then the start dates would peak at the same date every year. But they don't, they correlate better with kickoff.

I'm not saying that eliminating kickoff would all the sudden spread the pack from March 1st to June 1st but it certainly would eliminate the huge spike that occurs within that ten day period, perhaps spread the peak out to 20-30 days. that would make a huge difference.

if I had a bit of spare time I would go back and use Postholers data and look at the kick off date vs. When the average hiker gets to Kennedy Meadows. I have no doubt that earlier kickoff years result in earlier KMART arrival in spite of Ray Day not changing.

By the way, I did set my start date based on arriving at KM near a june 15. That is what drove my late start date and why I didn't go to kickoff. If other hikers used this same methodology vs. Start at kickoff you would automatically see the herd spread out. There is a huge range of experience and capabilities of those starting out yet there isn't the same spread in their start date.

[RED-DOG]

I think it's great 50 people a day is a lot for the PCT every body is trying to find a way around it why?, I am starting earlier than the beginning date so I am not worried at all.

[Coffee]

50 people actually seems like far beyond carrying capacity based on the campsite information in Guthook's guide, at least for the first stretch of the trail. I assume most people will end up somewhere short of Lake Morena on Day 1 except those getting an early start. Should be interesting.

Maybe "kick off" should transition to something like the Damascus AT trail days. Somewhere 500 miles up the trail or maybe even at KM itself? PCT "Sierra Kick Off" around June 1?

Unless I luck into an easy hitch back to Lake Morena I'm not attending kick off this year given my April 13 start date.

[RED-DOG]

NO I really don't see them doing anything like trail days since trail festivals adds to the problem actually I wished the ATC would take a stance much like the PCT has I wished trail days and ALL the kickoffs would be banned and since I am leaving April 10th I will not be going to the PCTKO or any trail festivals I am gong out their to enjoy their wilderness not add to their problems.

[Lyle]

Best tactic, across the board, is to quit glorifying thru-hikes. Makes MUCH more sense to me to split these long hikes into two. So much more lee-way for timing, so much more time for enjoyment, so much more relaxing.

I'm retired, have absolutely no desire to exchange one rat-race for another. I see no advantage at all to "racing" through some of the most beautiful areas on earth at 20, 25 miles per day. Yet this is exactly what most folks encourage, including the ATC and PCTA, if not through their explicit recommendations, through their (and our) attitudes and adulation heaped on through hikers.

Section hiking offers all the possibilities of through hiking, and adds lots of advantages.

Off my soapbox now.