I'm sure there will be snow. There was snow in late May even last year based on pictures I've seen. Question is whether enough people will sign up for the course to run. I'll be more confident in places like the north side of Glen Pass after going over Forester and Kearsarge with people who know what they are doing. Family also feels better about my time in the Sierras knowing I'm taking a course.
Trauma and Pepper are amazing and experienced winter hikers. I am not even vaguely in their league.
HST/JMT August 2016
TMB/Alps Sept 2015
PCT Mile 0-857 - Apr/May 2015
Foothills Trail Feb 2015
Colorado Trail Aug 2014
AT: Rockfish Gap to Boiling Springs 2014
John Muir Trail Aug/Sept 2013
I plan to arrive at KM right about June 15 but my start date will be determined by the hiking speed I plan to do which will be a bit slower than most up to KM...Want to enjoy it as much as possible...if this means I miss the kickoff...so be it...I would rather have a more comfortable and safe hiking pace at the begining then to attend a kick off....
I am stunned by the numbers and at the same time very thankful for being able to hike in near solitude in 2011. Over 1000 hikers will be starting in a three week period. Still only one single lonesome person starting on my May 21st start date.
If you can start early you will miss the vast majority of the 50 that are going to start that day. Last year I started at the border right at sunrise and only saw 6-7 people on the trail the entire day (April 19th).
Lonehiker (MRT '22)
One more a lot left in April, on April 3rd. There will 1600 permitted hikers leaving in the 32 stretch around April. I would have never guessed this level of growth so quickly.
I thought that a mid April start would put me ahead of the bubble but instead I'm right in the middle, exactly what I didn't want. But it is what it is and it is still going to be a great hike!
HST/JMT August 2016
TMB/Alps Sept 2015
PCT Mile 0-857 - Apr/May 2015
Foothills Trail Feb 2015
Colorado Trail Aug 2014
AT: Rockfish Gap to Boiling Springs 2014
John Muir Trail Aug/Sept 2013
The only way to avoid the crowds now is to go SOBO. And given the limited window for a SOBO PCT thru, even that is going to be crowded soon.
Thanks, Cheryl.
HST/JMT August 2016
TMB/Alps Sept 2015
PCT Mile 0-857 - Apr/May 2015
Foothills Trail Feb 2015
Colorado Trail Aug 2014
AT: Rockfish Gap to Boiling Springs 2014
John Muir Trail Aug/Sept 2013
Do SoCal, quit till July, then SOBO.
Esp if the drought continues into next year with low snow conditions and the numbers stay similar in terms of PCT hikers, I suspect SoBo, flip-flopping and "chunk hiking" the PCT is going to become more attractive.
Chunk hiking is probably the way to avoid a crowded trail overall.
Paul "Mags" Magnanti
http://pmags.com
Twitter: @pmagsco
Facebook: pmagsblog
The true harvest of my life is intangible...a little stardust caught,a portion of the rainbow I have clutched -Thoreau
I don't blame Cheryl or Oprah or Reese so much as the lemmings who go read a book or see a movie and decide to pattern their life after it, searching for "adventure" in a mostly homogenized, permitted experience. Inspiration isn't necessarily a bad thing though; we all get ours from somewhere, or someone (Thoreau, Emerson, Muir, Abbey, Stegner, London, Kerouac, Krakauer, Ryback, Bryson, Strayed, et al.). Crowds are now just a part of the American west, at least on so many of its roads, trails and rivers. And the bucket list mentality that so many of us are endowed/cursed with is as problematic as any single individual. "I did this, I did that, been there, done that," we claim (on social media and everywhere else), only to fall (mostly) upon deaf ears. Some individuals just tell a better story, alas, and so they reach a few more ears...and minds and hearts. And yet we loathe them for it.
Fortuitously, there are plenty of places yet to roam (or trespass) out west, where solitude is assured, if solitude is the aim. Trails are narrow strips and thus they suit narrow minds.
But maybe, just maybe, it's good to have more people outdoors. We're fortunate such a big place to play (currently) exists. Sure, it's getting smaller (just ask any of the older folks), but it's still vast beyond any one human's exploratory capacity.