PCTA sets limit on permits; maximum of 50 thru-hikers allowed to start each day

[burger]

I wonder how much attrition there will be in the new age. In 2009 I didn't sense a lot of drop outs - Most everyone I met already had a long trail under their belt and knew exactly what they were getting into. Will it turn into the AT, where 25% of hikers drop at at Neels Gap (or Julian?). Maybe that first really long dry stretch from Rodriguez Tank to Barrel Springs (30'ish mile).

Can't recall where I saw it, but iirc, the completion rate has been near 50% consistently.

Also, I knew at least 5 or 10 completed thru-hikers from '09 who had never done a thru before. Many had never backpacked. It's not really that hard a trail physically.

[frisbeefreek]

Can't recall where I saw it, but iirc, the completion rate has been near 50% consistently.

Also, I knew at least 5 or 10 completed thru-hikers from '09 who had never done a thru before. Many had never backpacked. It's not really that hard a trail physically.

Agreed - I've seen 50% also. My observation was more to the point that everyone I met had a prepared mindset, as opposed to "show up and start hiking" that I saw with some hikers on the AT. I wish success to everyone - mostly I'm curious how the numbers will change with increased head count.

[Malto]

660 starts in a two week period, no thanks

image.jpg

[Sly]

660 starts in a two week period, no thanks

image.jpg

It's still early and bound to get worse.

[burger]

I roughly added up the number April starters: ~1100 so far. ~100 in March, ~150 in May.

To steal a line from one of my favorite movies: they're gonna need a bigger trail.

[norts]

Still only half way to the amount of permits issued last year, 2655. So not too bad yet.

Taz

[Malto]

Still only half way to the amount of permits issued last year, 2655. So not too bad yet.

Taz

you may be comparing apples and oranges. The chart only shows NoBoers starting at campo IIRC. The permit numbers from last year would include all 500 mile permits, thrus, sections, NoBo, SoBo etc.

[Malto]

The latest permit numbers for April. 750 of your closest friends will be starting in a 15 day period. If no other good comes out of this process it will get visibility to the expected start dates. I would love to see counts at a couple places such as Warner Springs or Cajon Pass to see what the attrition rate in for this year.

[Coffee]

And we have severe drought. According to an early starter on FB, Hauser creek is already dry.

I'm at the start of the sold out herd leaving 4/13... About all I can do is vow to be self sufficient on water and flexible on cowboy camping where there are no available tenting options. That means not relying on caches. That means probably switching from a Circuit to Catalyst and giving up on th UL dream at least in SOCal an switching out to the Circuit and stepping on the gas after Tahoe... I don't get how people on FB say that they aren't relying on caches and then also going with very minimalist packs. I don't see how the math works out on some of the 20-30 mile water carries between natural sources.

[10-K]

Just make it to Lake Morena on day one and Mt. Laguna on day 2. It really, really isn't that hard.

Leaving on April 13th I think you'll find the heat tolerable/manageable and will be able to get in long days if you choose to do that.

And 20-30 PCT miles, particularly in the south, is not the same as 20-30 AT miles. It requires considerably less effort to get from Campo to Big Bear than it does from Springer to Hot Springs.

[Coffee]

I'm confident that I can do the miles, but I'm questioning my gear choices given the weight of water. Six liters is 13 pounds alone and that's what I would carry for 20-25 dry miles, not wanting to rely on caches. My average food carry is going to be around four days, or eight pounds. My base weight is slightly under 15 pounds. So 36 pounds could be typical and low 40s not at all out of the question on a long stretch like leaving Tehachapi Pass.

I think that many hikers are going to rely on caches to stay within the limits of more minimal packs. And I expect caches to be depleted with so many hikers starting each day, so there could be trouble ahead with the drought...

[10-K]

It'll work out once you start hiking - just take it one day at a time and go from water source to water source. I think you won't be able to totally figure it out until you get on the trail so no need to obsess about it - just make sure you have enough carrying capacity for 4-6 quarts of water (I don't recall ever carrying more than 4).

I will bet you lunch that you'll seldom actually have 4 days worth of food once you start hiking and get a feel for resupply options - you can resupply every couple of days most of the way up the trail.

FWIW, I'm glad I took my Catalyst because (as I've said a gazillion times) I would not have been able to go from KM to VVR without it but other than that a Circuit would have done nicely. I think you'll be fine with the Circuit.

[Coffee]

I have a rough idea of the resupply strategy based on Yogi's guide but I may look at adding a couple more. The one option that could really make a difference, if I am willing to deal with the logistics, would be Lake Isabella breaking up a seven day food carry, which when combined with the water needed leaving Tehachapi Pass, is probably when my pack will be at its heaviest ... Well over 40 pounds. The opening scene from Wild comes to mind!

[Malto]

Don't second guess yourself. By the time you hit Mojave you will be in peak shape and have water nailed. please read this blog post from Swami related to water. http://www.thehikinglife.com/going-light/food-water/

[Coffee]

Thanks. Good points on water management. I think that the big difference between my strategy and what I perceive many others are doing is that I really don't intend to rely on caches. Many people seem to be saying that (on facebook) but then asking questions about where caches are located which seems contradictory. I suspect many of them really are going to rely on caches. Maybe they will check the water report and plan the next day accordingly thinking that they have current information. But with 50 hikers per day or more hitting a cache location, it is going to be impossible for trail angels to keep up and the status of a cache could change within hours.

[Sly]

That means probably switching from a Circuit to Catalyst and giving up on th UL dream at least in SOCal an switching out to the Circuit and stepping on the gas after Tahoe...

It's only about a 7oz difference between packs.

I wouldn't depend on caches either, but they are a good place to camel up on hot dry days.

There's at least one 35 mile stretch between sources. If you intent on breaking it in two and dry camping, you may want to pack 8 liters.

FWIW, in SoCa I generally carried 2-1 liter Aqua Fina bottles and 2-2 liter Playpus Platy's. In the 35 mile section I picked up a 2 liter disposable soda bottle. About two miles from the next source I did have one liter remaining and used it to replenish a trail side cache.

[Coffee]

I'm working up a water plan for SoCal this afternoon with the intent on avoiding caches. I'm using 1L per 5 miles as a rule of thumb plus 1L for dry camping, if anticipated. So far, it isn't quite as bad as I thought it might be, although one or two of the reliable sources sound potentially disgusting.

[bamboo bob]

The latest permit numbers for April. 750 of your closest friends will be starting in a 15 day period. If no other good comes out of this process it will get visibility to the expected start dates. I would love to see counts at a couple places such as Warner Springs or Cajon Pass to see what the attrition rate in for this year.

I am having a hard time imagining these numbers of people. I don't get how those little towns can handle the resupply. Warner Springs was overloaded years ago. Sierra City? And Hiker Heaven ? The Saufley's will be looking at the attrition rate daily. I recall being told, that the AT had 3000 starters , the PCT 300, and the CDT 30 I guess we can increase those now.

[bamboo bob]

I'm working up a water plan for SoCal this afternoon with the intent on avoiding caches. I'm using 1L per 5 miles as a rule of thumb plus 1L for dry camping, if anticipated. So far, it isn't quite as bad as I thought it might be, although one or two of the reliable sources sound potentially disgusting.

That's been my rule for years. Worked fine on the eastern trails, but SOCAL I carried as much as 7 liters for places that were 107 degrees. And ran out too. Drink.

[MuddyWaters]

Batteries would seem to be somewhat lighter than water, if your into significant night hiking.