2015 Snow levels

[rjhouser]

I know it's way too early to know but what are we thinking it will be for 2015?

[SCRUB HIKER]

I know it's way too early to know but what are we thinking it will be for 2015?

You answered your own question.

/thread

[rjhouser]

But aren't there, like, "predictions" that are somewhat of a scientific sense? Or some amount of snowfall already? Or someone's internal barometric clock spitting out future snow measurements? Or a mystical west coast groundhog that emerges to proclaim the season's totals? THERE MUST BE A WAY

[DLP]

But aren't there, like, "predictions" that are somewhat of a scientific sense?

Yeah. Pacific Ocean water temperature can be predictive.

I heard on the news yesterday (in Visalia, CA) that the snow levels are at about 70% of normal and it is looking to be another drought year. We got a lot of snow in December but ZERO rain/snow since Dec 30. Google "California Snow Pack". Last reports seem to be from the end of December.

If you are planning a thru hike... California can end up in a horrific drought with 50% of the average snow, however, if that snow dumps in April and May you will experience a lot of snow. This has been the pattern for the past 3-4 years - zero snow in January and then it will dump in March and April.

Somebody who hiked last year (10-K?) is also from the South and said that he had never seen so much snow in his life... and it was a bad drought year.

Squaw Valley ski resort cams can give you an idea of what California PCT looks like in winter. http://squawalpine.com/skiing-riding...-tahoe-webcams

[enyapjr]

Yes, rjhouser, you did answer your own question, but FWIW, FYI... California snow is much lower than 70% of normal - as of January 20th it's only 30% of normal to date according to state reports. Also shown on those same graphs are the 2014 plots - even though 10-K (?) may have "never seen so much snow in his life", I have only seen less snow in the Sierra one other time, and that was 1977. 2014 being a low snow year, many thrus left Kennedy Meadows going into the Sierra very early (some even early May!). As you can see on the 2014 and 2013 plots, there were no "heavy dumps" in March, April, or May, but it's too early to tell what will happen in Feb/Mar/Apr this year, though per NOAA's NWS Climate Prediction Center long term forecasts, there is a greater than normal chance of above average precip in SoCal (including the southern Sierra) but with a greater chance of above average temps... I have been following Sierra snow & climate reports for many years - my educated WAG (yes, since it's so early it's definitely a WAG!) is that it will be yet another relatively low snow year (but more than 2014) and warm Spring temps for an early melt off - making for a relatively easy 'typical' thru season (early June Sierra entry). Note that that does not mean there will be no snow at all in the Sierra - more than likely there will still be snow at least on the passes to deal with, and more lower if one enters the Sierra early. (all the common disclaimers apply!! )

[Sasquatch!]

Use the NOAA predictions. They are usually spot on. I plan my hikes, even what area of the country I live in, based on those.

I'm in Seattle now, its sunny damn near every day, and often in the 50's. Thanks NOAA.


A bunch of hikers, including 10k, left Kennedy meadows during and/or directly after a few storms. This was around the last week of May.

[quasarr]

Yes, maybe 10-K can chime in here but I recall he left KM maybe at the end of May which is a few weeks earlier than normal. Even a week or two can make a big difference in snow melt. In 2013, another dry year, I left KM around June 7 and I never had to walk on snow for more than 100 yards. I did not have an ice axe and I did not feel unsafe without one. And the fords were also much easier than normal. Bear Creek and Evolution Creek were no more than knee deep. Yogi's book had dire warnings about those fords being really dangerous in past years.

[rjhouser]

I guess my concern is I have 100 days to thru starting May 10. So I could be trying to enter the Sierra "early" by some standards.

[RED-DOG]

I am hoping for identical snow levels to last year or maybe even a little less, since I am leaving April 10th and got a lot of winter hiking experience, snow in the sierra want hurt me that much.

HOPING for a very mild west coast winter.

[quasarr]

Rj, with your schedule you might average average 25 per day. (So you do five days in a row of thirty, then take a zero haha!!) That would put you at KM around June 6. In 2013 you would definitely have been able to maintain your pace in the Sierras. I was doing 20-22 per day and I am not a big mile hiker. You might also want to pack straight from KM to Mammoth without stopping, because the re supplies there can take at least a day.

So if you get another drought year you should be ok!!

[DLP]

California snow is much lower than 70% of normal - as of January 20th it's only 30% of normal to date according to state reports.

That is correct. I heard 70% on the news, but it must have been "70% below average" or something like that. Sorry about that.

Still no snow predicted for the next 10 days. Might mean a good year for hiking... but bad year for agriculture and the small valley towns.

[DLP]

I am hoping for identical snow levels to last year or maybe even a little less...

Snow pack was 33% of normal last year. http://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/tiogaopen.htm

Oh god, I hope it isn't that low again this year. I don't see how it can go lower than 33% of normal... but we shall see.

[rocketsocks]

This is a test, but EMS has some pretty cheap snow shovel on sale at 29% for demos dat dare.

http://m.ems.com/categories/3696823/products?page=2

[rocketsocks]

20 %

was as trying to copy paste from phone, had not been able to do so sucsessful like before. Thank you for your time. That is all.

[rjhouser]

So it's looking like another dry year?

[Sasquatch!]

Yup. With the elevated possibility of more precipitation later in the season. So, maybe a few storms late April/early May.

[DLP]

It has been a dry, dry drought year. I don't think I've ever seen anything like it.

And Tioga Road thru Tuolumne Meadows is closed due to snow and ice. http://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/conditions.htm

[frisbeefreek]

Holy cow - I didn't realize how truly low snow was this year...

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reports/PLOT_SWC

[rjhouser]

Holy cow - I didn't realize how truly low snow was this year...

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reports/PLOT_SWC

So what does this mean for 2015 thrus? Will I even see snow this year at all.

[sonora pass resupply]

I was out last week along the N.W. border of Yosemite. On the north (protected) side of the ridges there was very little snow at 8,000 feet, much higher on the south sides. At the higher elevations there seems to plenty of deep snow.

In a typical year at this time there would be 4 to 8 feet on the ground at 6,000 feet. When they give the snow pack percentage it is the snow missing at the low elevations that reduce it. The snow depth at 12,000 might not be that far below normal. The storms we have had this season have been warm resulting in snow only at the higher elevations.