End of March Weather?

[GeoRed]

I'm having difficulties finding past weather conditions for the GSMNP between the dates of March 20th - March 28th for the past few years. Does anyone know of a reliable resource I can use to find this info? Also, do any of you have any firsthand experience of the GSMNP stretch during these dates?

[HooKooDooKu]

First of all, recent weather conditions show just how variable weather, especially in GSMNP, can be.

I did a hike up to Gregory Bald on the weekend of Oct 25th. Weather was clear with temperature Hi/Lo of something like 60º/45º.
The weekend of Nov 1st, the weather forecast for Gregory Bald was 3" of snow on the ground with a lo of 16º with a wind chill of -6º.
Of course this was an extreme example.

But to answer your original question, published climate data puts Hi/Lo temperatures at the lower elevations around 65º/38º, and at Clingman's Dome around 45º/29º.
But temperatures can easily be +/-15º from these seasonal averages (i.e. without extreme weather situations like what happened the 1st of November this year).

[DandT40]

We were at GSMNP for those dates in 2013. The first day we were there it was 60's and sunny. We went to sleep at Elkmont and woke up with 3" of snow on our tent and freezing temps. We went backpacking then next few days and above 5000 feet it was a complete whiteout. After the snow stopped it warmed back up at lower elevations but there was still a ton of snow at the higher elevations.

From my experience for those dates on any given year you can expect any weather conditions from 20-70 depending on elevation and anywhere from a ton of snow to none. You just never know till it gets closer and even then things can change quickly.

[HooKooDooKu]

While it won't help in terms of temperatures, another way to get an idea of the historical weather pattern in the Smokies is to check the Web Cam Archives:
Look Rock
Purchase Knob
Of the two, Purchase Knob gives you a relatively up-close look at the ground to get an idea what snow might be like that time of year.
Some years, there is no snow, other years there is a light snow fall gone in a day or two.
In 2006, you can see that the night of the 23rd had enough snow fall that it took 5 days for the snow to melt.
To follow up on DandT40's story, you can see snow fell the night of either the 19th or 20th (the 20th is missing from the archive) but was pretty much gone by the 22nd.

[sliderule]

http://www.outragegis.com/weather/im...tion/index.php

[GeoRed]

Thank you for your thoughts regarding my dilemma and for the resources you've mentioned. I've been reading trail journals and other posts on WB and I'm still concerned with the initial thru-hiker bubble being all over the park. I know weather will be a huge factor. Let's just say in March Spring comes early this year, then it'll be havoc around the shelters. But if Winter lingers, then there will be way less people. Am I right in thinking this?

[Slo-go'en]

There is really no way of knowing in terms of both the number of thru hikers who make it that far and the kind of weather there will be. One day can make a big difference in the weather.

It takes the average hiker between 2 and 3 weeks to get to the Smokies. That means you'll meet the very early March starters - or at least the ones still going as many of those will have already dropped out. The real question is how many spring breakers will be there? Those are the ones you have to worry about...

[CarlZ993]

I went thru the Smokies a little later than that in 2013: 4/4 to 4/8.
4/4: Nasty weather day; cold, freezing rain. 1st shelter was slam full. I went to Russell Field Shelter & it didn't fill up.
4/5: Made it to Silers Bald Shelter. It filled up & some tents around the shelter.
4/6: Made it to Gatlinburg; treacherous trail conditions coming down from Clingman's Dome (icy bobsled run); wished I had my MicroSpikes; I fell many times; saw one guy dislocate his shoulder on a fall & it ended his hike; Grand Prix Motel filled up completely.
4/7: Made it to Tricorner Knob; it filled up completely; ice wasn't quite as bad this date; didn't fall.
4/8: Made it to Standing Bear Hostel; icy on the way down; once I lost some elevation, it was just a muddy trail.
A hiking buddy of mine hit the Smokies earlier in 2013. I don't recall the dates. He was held up for several days @ Fontana Resort due to heavy snows (Rangers weren't letting hikers enter the park).

Plan for the worse & hope for the best. Good luck on your hike.

[GeoRed]

It's Auburn University's Spring Break that week, thus why I'm off to go hiking. I can see more hikers going that time of the week. This may sound crazy, but I'd like to go during a decent snow storm. I think I would have been upset if the rangers didn't let me in the park. One of my favorite hikes yet was hiking SOBO from 50 miles above Damascus in the 3rd week of April a few years ago and out of nowhere a foot of snow fell the first night out. I was rocking a 40 degree synthetic sleeping bag and I toughed it out. I was staying at a shelter with a few February thru-hikers who braved tons of snow in the Smokies. I just felt obligated to step up my game and I've been craving another hike ever since. I braved that polar vortex above Franklin, NC with that same 40 degree bag (I recently upgraded to a 15 degree down bag, those nights were pretty rough), only thing was no snow. I guess I could wait until a couple weeks before and hope I can still get a shuttle if the weather looks like it'll be the hike I've been craving. I also forgot that if the shelters aren't full in the Smokies, I have to stay in them. I'd rather stay in my tent than brave the mice, so it might be better if the park is crawling with hikers. My other options would be to rehike the Roan range or the Grayson Highlands. What about the CT this time of year? I have Sunday through Friday with Saturday being my buffer if something goes wrong. If I can't settle on a hiking destination, I'll be Puerto Rico bound..

Thank you again for your input!

[TNhiker]

Hmmmmm.....

puerto Rico with babes in bikinis on the beach or smokies in a shelter with stinky hikers in a snow storm?

easy call for me...

also, there are plenty of wilderness areas around the Park that aren't going to be as crowded....unless you are focusing on the AT.....

[SGT Rock]

There is really no way of knowing in terms of both the number of thru hikers who make it that far and the kind of weather there will be. One day can make a big difference in the weather.

It takes the average hiker between 2 and 3 weeks to get to the Smokies. That means you'll meet the very early March starters - or at least the ones still going as many of those will have already dropped out. The real question is how many spring breakers will be there? Those are the ones you have to worry about...

That is my experience as well. I usually see lots of thru-hikers, but even more spring breakers.

[GeoRed]

So I got upset the girlfriend and committed to PR to make her happy. The things we do..

Thanks again for your replies.

[kf1wv]

We were at GSMNP for those dates in 2013. The first day we were there it was 60's and sunny. We went to sleep at Elkmont and woke up with 3" of snow on our tent and freezing temps. We went backpacking then next few days and above 5000 feet it was a complete whiteout. After the snow stopped it warmed back up at lower elevations but there was still a ton of snow at the higher elevations. . . .

Ditto that one. I remembering a lot of postholing in deep slush . . . and then mud . . . the last day in the Park NOBO.

[takethisbread]

Look for mostly cold wet weather to Damascus. Prepare for the worst, and you'll be pleasantly surprised if it's nice


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[mississippi_dan]

Below are the average low temperatures recorded on Mt LeConte (6,593 ft) 1988-2014. These would be representative for the higher elevation areas in the GSMNP.
Dan

Mt LeConte - avg low temperatures.GIF