I'm looking for some input/advice on marathon pacing for a race coming up in a little over six weeks. I thru hiked the Colorado Trail this year from July 28 to August 28 and resumed running a week ago when I returned home. As has been the case in the past after long hikes, my legs felt pretty much like lead weights even though I was not stressing from a cardio stand point at all. Well, after about 30 miles of running over the past week, my legs feel better but my pacing is about a full minute per mile slower than prior to the thru hike. This is quite a bit more severe of a drop in performance compared to what happened after my (shorter) JMT thru hike last year. After the JMT, my pacing didn't drop off by that much and I bounced back enough to run a 3:34 marathon just a bit over five weeks after returning.
My marathon PR was in March at 3:27 and I never had a goal of improving upon that this fall since I knew that I'd be thru hiking the CT and would have limited time to train afterwards. But I was hoping at least for something in the 3:30-3:40 range. But I don't want to get injured in the process of training. For reference, my pace on a seven mile run yesterday was around 8:30/mile. My more typical pace on such a training run when I'm toward the end of a 16 week marathon program might be in the 7:30/mile neighborhood.
I have three weeks before I begin a taper and my plan is to run 37, 41, and 45 mile weeks with 12, 16, and 20 mile long runs. I'm leaning toward being really conservative on how far I push myself and maybe resigning myself to a 3:45 to 4:00 marathon, but hoping to develop a strategy to get my pacing faster somehow over the next few weeks w/o injury so I can get closer to 3:30. I'm really trying to avoid injury because I plan to step up my training over the winter to hopefully Boston qualify when I run another marathon in the spring. BQ qualification for my age group is a 3:15 so that's a tall order based on my current PR, and if I suffer an injury in this training cycle, I won't have a chance.
Any input based on this limited info from other marathon runners w/experience with short training plans after thru hikes would be helpful. Thanks.