2014 Thru hikers starting later than usual becuase of snow/cold?

[canoe]

WOW this got off track quick

[4eyedbuzzard]

WOW this got off track quick

8 posts. It's winter and the weather sucks.
Back on topic: For many years the traditional start date for a NOBO was April 15 due to general/average weather. As thru-hiking become more popular, people began starting earlier and earlier for a variety of reasons that I've heard - college starting in September (students would take off spring semester only), more time to complete hike (October finish in ME can be iffy weather wise for a 6 month hike), a string of years that saw milder winters in the south.
So, are thru-hikers really starting later than usual, or have they more recently simply been starting earlier than what was once usual?

[WorldPeaceAndStuff]

Keep in mind the weather on the AT at an elevation of 4000-5000 foot is sharply different than those forecasts of towns like Hiawassee, Franklin, etc.

So true. The weather at 3k feet is not the same as 5k feet. While this town isn't on the trail, it's just over 5k feet up. You can check their weather here then click towns at lower elevations like Banner Elk, which is around 3.7k feet. http://averyweather.com/Forecast/Beech+Mountain

[Son Driven]

I'm still planning on starting my hike within the first couple weeks of March, but I also grew up in Northwest PA and I have a strong outdoors background.

Being from MN, I did not show enough respect for the North GA mountains, last season. My 3/6/13 arrival was met with a night of hypothermia.


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[hoppy from GA]

Georgia is hit or miss with bad weather. May be good, may be bad. I have the luxury of waiting til the last minute to hit the trail. For others, I recommend the average temps posted on accuweather. Just subtract about 5 degrees from the Hiawassee, GA forecast and you'll be about the average for the higher elevation lows/highs in GA. Subtract about the same from Franklin, NC weather forecast for NC weather until you get to the Smokies. Be prepared, though. If you have a 20 degree bag, take a liner and be prepared to sleep in some extra clothes, if need be. If you take a 0 degree bag, expect to ship it back after about a month. Remember that most hypothermia around here occurs in getting wet in 32-50 degree rain, so have good rain gear. Hope this helps!

[Slo-go'en]

So, are thru-hikers really starting later than usual, or have they more recently simply been starting earlier than what was once usual?

I belive they have been starting earlier due to many of the reasons you listed, the spell of mild winters being a big factor. Now that we're back to having more "normal" winters, maybe that trend will be reversed.

[4shot]

Being from MN, I did not show enough respect for the North GA mountains, last season. My 3/6/13 arrival was met with a night of hypothermia.


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happens all the time...people from up north have the wrong ideas about spring in the southern mountains. don't know how or why this idea is so prevalent and it's slightly worse with the tourists than the hikers. this ranks up there with "Virginia is flat" with most common trail misconceptions.

[daddytwosticks]

Looks like north Georgia is gonna get hit with a real weather mess starting Monday night. The folks on the Weather Channel are starting to freak out. Wonder if any thru hikers are starting early this week? Atlanta will probably shut down for days again.

[Slo-go'en]

Looks like north Georgia is gonna get hit with a real weather mess starting Monday night. The folks on the Weather Channel are starting to freak out. Wonder if any thru hikers are starting early this week? Atlanta will probably shut down for days again.

It doesn't take much to get the folks on the WC to get excided. Oh, aren't they out of Atlanta too?

Acording to trailjournals, three are suppost to start this coming week, one on the 9th and two on the 14th. But I think at least two will be no shows and the one who says he has a 52 pound pack - well good luck if he does show. The line up for next week doesn't look too promising either. Of course, these are just the people who recorded some arbitary start date on Trailjournals.

[Majortrauma]

[QUOTE=moldy;1845768]For several years some hiking buddies and myself had a NOBO thru hike "fantasy hiking league".
That's a fantastic idea moldy. I'm going to see if I can get a few of my hiking buddies to do this.

[Son Driven]

happens all the time...people from up north have the wrong ideas about spring in the southern mountains. don't know how or why this idea is so prevalent and it's slightly worse with the tourists than the hikers. this ranks up there with "Virginia is flat" with most common trail misconceptions.

I agree, however being from Minnesota, I had experienced hypothermia before, my previous experiences, gave me the ability to get through the night, and I eventually finished the trail. If this had been my first experience with hypothermia, I might have panicked, and been among the many calling it quits.

[TheYoungOne]

For several years some hiking buddies and myself had a NOBO thru hike "fantasy hiking league". We went on Trail Journals and each picked a 10 person team and we tracked them on TJ. We each kicked in a hundred bucks. 1 point per mile. After a few years we each developed a system for winning. Even though I pretty much sucked at it. Others figured it out, and early starters were not a safe bet no matter how strong, motivated, young etc. a hiker looked. Early starters were right up there with fat and old as far as odds making went. That does not mean that old, fat early starters don't make it every year. It's just that if Las Vegas odds makers were handicapping this stuff, early starters won't have great odds. One of the problems was Trail Journals itself, some people walk and some people talk......

While I didn't have any bets, or had Fantasy Hiking League, I have been following Thru hikers for the last few years on Youtube. Its kind of fun to do a search "AT thru hike" Between now 5/1 and see all these people getting ready to start their thru-hiking adventure.
It’s sad but sometimes you can just look into their eyes when they make their first video from Springer, or see their first post of what they are packing for the trip, and just know that they are not going to make it. Sometimes I am surprised and the one I thought would not make it past Neels Gap makes it all the way to Maine, while the one that looks like a pro thru hiker bails out early. I find myself focusing in on maybe 6 to a dozen youtube thru-hiker trail journals every year. You can’t help to cheer them on, or to see if they bailed yet. I hate to say it, but it’s really interesting viewing and would make a great reality TV show.

[Mumbles_2014]

Little nervous about my March 5th start date but still going through with it, hopefully we don't get any record lows.

[sadlowskiadam]

Here are a couple of early starters who got injured and likely leaving the trail. Not sure if the injuries are cold weather related or not. Hopefully they can return to the trail.

http://trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?id=442325

http://trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?id=442393

[ChuckT]

All the prep in the world still will be trumped by plain bad luck.

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[Slo-go'en]

With the way this winter has been going, you'd be best waiting until June to start