Tracking the bubble

[pipsissewa]

Sorry if this is common knowledge, but is there a way to track the northbound "bubble" of thru-hikers? I was thinking of doing some trail magic and I'd like to know where the largest block of hikers are at any given time. Is there a website that tracks the bubble or some way to use data on a website to track strictly numbers (not an individual hiker)? Thanks

[4shot]

pick a random date in the last week or so of March/first week of April. Keep track of the number of days since that date and multiply by 13 (any number between 12 and 15). Should give you an idea of how many trail miles the "bubble" has travelled. Use an AT guide to approximate distance. Say you pick March 25. 25 days later there will be a bubble of hikers 325 miles north of Springer. Use a guide to see where that would be (maybe Hot Springs? I'm too lazy to go get my guide). Should work as well as anything.

[moldy]

There is no real tracking of the bubble going on. Nobody is counting noses then publishing the numbers. You can use the basic math method of figuring when and where to maximize the number of hikers you intercept by going to MapMans article on data that is posted here on WHiteblaze. You can generally figure things out by following numerous hikers on Trailjournals.com. Recent efforts by the trail gods to flatten the bell curve and spread everyone out and therefore eliminate the bubble have caused more and more hikers to start early. Another problem with figuring the location of the bubble is figuring the size of the bubble. We are sure that the number of thru-hikers is going up and it may be going "way up". It could very well be that the data was masked in 2013 by a combination of poor counting and a rough start to the hiking season do to weather and illness. Perhaps in 2014 the hikers will find favorable conditions and more hikers will decide to stick it out. This could cause quite a bubble. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[HikerMom58]

There is no real tracking of the bubble going on. Nobody is counting noses then publishing the numbers. You can use the basic math method of figuring when and where to maximize the number of hikers you intercept by going to MapMans article on data that is posted here on WHiteblaze. You can generally figure things out by following numerous hikers on Trailjournals.com. Recent efforts by the trail gods to flatten the bell curve and spread everyone out and therefore eliminate the bubble have caused more and more hikers to start early. Another problem with figuring the location of the bubble is figuring the size of the bubble. We are sure that the number of thru-hikers is going up and it may be going "way up". It could very well be that the data was masked in 2013 by a combination of poor counting and a rough start to the hiking season do to weather and illness. Perhaps in 2014 the hikers will find favorable conditions and more hikers will decide to stick it out. This could cause quite a bubble. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Indeed!

Usually the "bubble" hits Daleville VA, the end of May beginning of June. The hikers get "bunched up" a lil bit at Trail Days in Damascus, which is in mid May.

There are many waves of hikers that come through, at any given time, in Daleville, VA. When I go to Outdoor Trails, I always ask them how many hikers are in the area... they can tell you right away. lol They told me that 1/3 of their revenue comes from thru-hikers.

[RED-DOG]

What section of trail are you thinking about doing trail magic? If we new the section we could probably give you a real good quess. Go to trailjournals.com and read a bunch of journals, but their's no real way to track them.

[Odd Man Out]

Here is a WB Article with detailed analysis of past thru hiker schedules. Not real time for the current year and doesn't take into account annual variability. Also, it is only based on data from successful hikers. At the beginning, but bubble is inflated by those who don't make it.

http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php?44

This is the most relevant table from the article:

TABLE 3 -- Date Landmarks Were Reached

MEDIAN DAY ~~ MEAN DAY ~~~ LANDMARK
March 17............March 20...........Springer
March 25............March 28...........Georgia Border
April 1................April 5...............Fontana
April 28..............April 29..............Damascus
May 29..............May 28..............Waynesboro
June 9...............June 8...............Harpers Ferry
June 29.............June 27..............DWG
July 12..............July 10...............Kent
Aug. 5...............Aug. 2...............Glencliff
Aug. 15.............Aug. 12..............Gorham
Aug. 26.............Aug. 22..............Stratton
Sept. 9..............Sept. 4..............Katahdin!

[Odd Man Out]

Here's my graph of that data:

bubble.jpg

[pipsissewa]

Thanks, OMO. Looks like the month of April is when I can expect the most traffic near us (not far from the Roan Highlands of NC/TN). Thanks again for taking the time to put the data together.

[GeoRed]

How many NoBo's have taken off so far this year? What's a good way to keep track of their progress?

[TEXMAN]

Sorry if this is common knowledge, but is there a way to track the northbound "bubble" of thru-hikers? I was thinking of doing some trail magic and I'd like to know where the largest block of hikers are at any given time. Is there a website that tracks the bubble or some way to use data on a website to track strictly numbers (not an individual hiker)? Thanks

Why not be a trail angel either ahead or behind the bubble > you'll have less hikers but they will have seen less"Trail Magic" so it would be more meaningful to those you help...just a thought

[pipsissewa]

Why not be a trail angel either ahead or behind the bubble > you'll have less hikers but they will have seen less"Trail Magic" so it would be more meaningful to those you help...just a thought

Good idea, TM!

[sadlowskiadam]

Why not be a trail angel either ahead or behind the bubble > you'll have less hikers but they will have seen less"Trail Magic" so it would be more meaningful to those you help...just a thought

Great idea. I started April 28th last year and saw little of the trail magic. There a still plenty of hikers starting April 21-May 7 at Springer who would greatly appreciate some trail magic.

[notabear13]

Why not be a trail angel either ahead or behind the bubble > you'll have less hikers but they will have seen less"Trail Magic" so it would be more meaningful to those you help...just a thought

Yep. I started early, and got a good bit of trail magic. But I feel bad for the late starters - I doubt they get much at all, since it is all used up, first on the early birds, then on the main crowd. Late starters get the scraps.

[kennyxedge]

Two years ago when I started April 1st, I'm pretty sure I saw Trail Magic every day at least once, sometimes more than that for the first 2 weeks.

[4eyedbuzzard]

Why not be a trail angel either ahead or behind the bubble > you'll have less hikers but they will have seen less"Trail Magic" so it would be more meaningful to those you help...just a thought

Good idea, TM!

Great idea. I started April 28th last year and saw little of the trail magic. There a still plenty of hikers starting April 21-May 7 at Springer who would greatly appreciate some trail magic.

Yep. I started early, and got a good bit of trail magic. But I feel bad for the late starters - I doubt they get much at all, since it is all used up, first on the early birds, then on the main crowd. Late starters get the scraps.

Two years ago when I started April 1st, I'm pretty sure I saw Trail Magic every day at least once, sometimes more than that for the first 2 weeks.

Many years ago, Trail Magic was just that - it was magic. It wasn't planned, nor was it a mass hiker feed. You would be talking to a stranger while buying food and next thing you know they would invite you for dinner and even to spend the evening in their guest room. Or you'd get a hitch into town and be offered a shower and to camp in their yard. Or while passing a field a farmer would offer you a few ears of corn or some tomatoes or such. Section and day hikers would offer you some extra food or a beer, or it even might be just a water jug left at a road crossing in a dry section of trail. But it was unexpected and unplanned and - MAGIC! It just seems that a good deal of the "magic" part seems to have been lost along the way. Kind of sad. It was very memorable.

[kennyxedge]

Many years ago, Trail Magic was just that - it was magic. It wasn't planned, nor was it a mass hiker feed. You would be talking to a stranger while buying food and next thing you know they would invite you for dinner and even to spend the evening in their guest room. Or you'd get a hitch into town and be offered a shower and to camp in their yard. Or while passing a field a farmer would offer you a few ears of corn or some tomatoes or such. Section and day hikers would offer you some extra food or a beer, or it even might be just a water jug left at a road crossing in a dry section of trail. But it was unexpected and unplanned and - MAGIC! It just seems that a good deal of the "magic" part seems to have been lost along the way. Kind of sad. It was very memorable.

I understand what you're saying. There was plenty of the Trail Magic you're speaking about along the way. But any kind of trail magic can be a huge pick me up regardless and I remember all of it. Whether it was the church group serving up omelets and sandwiches to hikers on day 4, the guy hiking southbound with hot dogs and soda on a rainy day a couple months down the line or the many people who offered/gave rides. It all great and appreciated.

[Ox97GaMe]

Great idea. I started April 28th last year and saw little of the trail magic. There a still plenty of hikers starting April 21-May 7 at Springer who would greatly appreciate some trail magic.

Agreed. I have been doing trail magic for the past 15 yrs. Seems like more and more of the hikers in the 'bubble' are less appreciative of the trail magic. I think it may be because they see so much of it, or that they feel they are entitled to it.

Pips: The other thing to consider is how far shelters, hostels, and/or campsites are from the location you choose to provide trail magic. Most road crossings see hikers in waves. (hikers for an hour, no hikers for 2-3 hrs) If the shelter is just before the road crossing, most hikers from the shelter will be through there before 9am. If the shelter is just past the road crossing, most hikers are coming through in late afternoon/evening. Calculate 2.0 mph average hiker speed. Show up at least an hour early to catch the faster hikers.

Example Davenport Gap:
First shelter is 1 mile. Most hikers at the road 8am-9am.
Second shelter is ~9 miles. Most hikers at the road around 1pm
Third shelter is ~17 miles. Most hikers are either
a) staying at the previous shelter and dont cross the road, or
b) pushing to get to the hostel 4 miles further and at the road around 5pm

If you use this example and arrive at the gap at 2:00, you would get frustrated waiting 3 hrs to see the first hiker.

Its about location and timing. Have fun.

[WingedMonkey]

Agreed. I have been doing trail magic for the past 15 yrs. Seems like more and more of the hikers in the 'bubble' are less appreciative of the trail magic. I think it may be because they see so much of it, or that they feel they are entitled to it.

Thank you for confirming my belief that what self appointed magicians do is for their own joy and needs.

[HikerMom58]

Thank you for confirming my belief that what self appointed magicians do this for their own joy and needs.

Fixed it for ya.

You are back WM.

We already went over this a million times... there is something in it for everyone involved. If the givers didn't get anything out of it then there would be NO motivation for anyone to do anything, EVER. Think about it, it's the way we are "programed".

If I read you correctly, no one should mention it, plan it or acknowledge it... just do it when the spirit moves ya, if not, it will happen magically on it's own. Okay, that's cool.

And most certainly do away with the "trail angel" avatar, those people are self appointed magicians. I got ya!

Too much of a "good thing" can go terribly wrong. The baby boomer generation (as parents) know this all too well.

I believe I understand you now.

[lemon b]

Jackrabbits show up here in May, steaady flow thru July not a real bubble.