Extended ridgeline weather forecast

I'm looking at long range forecasts (Sep/Oct) for Stowe and Underhill and am curious if anyone knows of a long range forecast for anywhere up higher. Research has uncovered historical data for Mansfield, but that isn't really a good indicator of future conditions. The reason I'm looking is to help me decide which underquilt to bring along between a 30°f shorty and a 10°f full size. Difference is about 9oz and a fair bit of volume. Tempted to go with overkill rather than risk being cold, but I always like to see if I can find some data to base my decisions on rather than hunches :)

A 30 can be marginal in July sometimes....
I wouldnt bring anything rated higher than a good 20 , with a full down hood as well in late september.

you wont find a forecast worth a grain of salt a month out. It is based on historical avg for most part. Reality can be +/- 20 F from that.
The problem with a long distance hike, is that you cannot know forecast a week out like you do for shorter hikes, and you have to take worst case or plan to retreat to town if temp drops.

take the 10. You will be warm and happy. Ive spent a few cold nights, it sucks. Especially if theres more than one in a row and you have all day to look forward to doing it again. You kick yourself the whole day for not having that few oz more of insulation. does a few oz, or even 1-2 lbs really matter, REALLY? No, it doesnt. Not a bit. Not unless your already suffering under too heavy pack, in which case your insulation weight is not the main problem.

It isn't about weight Muddy, it is about volume, as I said. I'm an Ultra Loader so weight means nothing to me. :) Using valuable pack space for needless volume is something I like to avoid though. It helps to keep any weight load under control if you can keep it close to your center. The more crap starts bulging out the more likely it unbalances you or gets caught on something. Besides, that is valuable space that could be used for carrying cookies or cheese!

As for the long range forecasts they are actually quite useful for planning even longer trips. I've been using Accuweather's long range stuff for a couple of years now. The month out stuff is more of a guess as you say, but the trends are pretty close. The day the rain may come shifts as the dates draw closer, but a storm does come through that week. The temps vary from the month out forecast, but stay on trend vs avg norms. You can't bet your life on it, but you can make plans. Like I mentioned, I am a man of data based choices when possible so I seek data. Evaluating its worth is always part of the process heh.

As a former Taft Lodge fall caretaker here's the best long term forecast : Some days will be pleasantly warm, some will be bitching cold. I was so glad Columbus day weekend came so I could get the heck off that mountain.

If you can time to trip to coincide with warm weather the 30 bag, with a liner and base layers will *probably* be okay, but I wouldn't risk it. All signs point to an early and cold fall this year.

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Originally Posted by Slo-go'en

As a former Taft Lodge fall caretaker here's the best long term forecast : Some days will be pleasantly warm, some will be bitching cold. I was so glad Columbus day weekend came so I could get the heck off that mountain.

If you can time to trip to coincide with warm weather the 30 bag, with a liner and base layers will *probably* be okay, but I wouldn't risk it. All signs point to an early and cold fall this year.

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Days will be fine, rain or shine, but I'm curious about the night temps on the ridge because I need my beauty sleep. Underhill is a good 2500' below where you were at the lodge so I'm guessing a fair bit warmer. Were you around freezing most nights towards the end of your run there?

I'm actually using a 20°f top quilt and have some light but warm sleep clothes as I'm an experienced White Mtn winter camper. Just trying to convince myself that the bulk of the bigger underquilt is worth it because I know I'll be shivering some night if I don't. Nice of you to help out :)

The best you can do is look at the forecast a few days out from the trip and decide then. It can go either way in the matter of a few hours depending on which way the front is moving. When a cold front from Canada drops down, it comes in a hurry and that air was over the Hudson bay 24 hours earlier. But you live in Maine and must know that.

Have two piles of gear ready - one for if it looks like it will be warm , another if it looks like it will be cold.

This fall looks to be volatile and doing "the three best days of fall" hike will take the ability to jump on them when they show up, regardless of exactly when they occur.

You are correct, I do know what things are like here in NE. We woke up to 38°f two of five mornings on our last trip to Baxter, but even in August we were prepared for that. I don't have the luxury of packing for "the three best days of fall" hike though as I am packing for "the twenty five or thirty best days of fall" hike. I will bite the bullet and pack the cold weather UQ. The rest of the load has long since been decided and works for whatever the weather brings from steamy to snow, though I'd prefer snow to steamy.

Cutting corners this time of year can be a big mistake. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. For a Sept/Oct E2E, you'll get both.