A “high snow year” in the Sierras

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02-28-2019, 02:03
Out of Mind

A “high snow year” in the Sierras

I’m sure most people planning any backpacking trip in the Sierra stay vigilant on the conditions. But I want to highlight the fact that this year is officially a “high snow year” for the region. Backcountry travelers, backpackers & thru-hikers should pay heed and be prepared. Of course, being the last days of February, it’s still early and high country conditions, being dependent on so many variables, can & will change.

However, currently most of the Sierras are at 130% - 150% of their yearly snowfall, using the April 1st metric ( which is the traditional “end of season” mark ).

Here’s a good link to a map, outlining the snowpack in regions, comparatively to historical averages. -

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/j...me=swccond.pdf

*I started a thread for the same topic in the PCT forum, but felt obliged to share with JMT-ers as well. Hence the redundancy.* ⛰❄️✌🏼
02-28-2019, 08:15
chknfngrs

Broken link, but I’m interested in your post for sure
02-28-2019, 09:55
CalebJ

Try this link:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/j...me=swccond.pdf
02-28-2019, 10:11
MuddyWaters

1 Attachment(s)

Its only a few of last 10 yrs that it looks high by comparison . Some got used to that and expect snow free before mid july based on it..

There is no actual average. It ranges almost min to almost max routinely. The standard deviation is wide. The average doesnt any reflect real snowpack.

Higher....yeah.
High...not so much. Its all normal range really over time. Apr1 ranges by +/-50% virtually all the time.

Last 20 yrs

Attachment 44730
02-28-2019, 11:52
Out of Mind

Quote:

Originally Posted by chknfngrs

Broken link, but I’m interested in your post for sure

Link fixed:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/j...me=swccond.pdf
02-28-2019, 12:23
Out of Mind

Quote:

Originally Posted by MuddyWaters

Its only a few of last 10 yrs that it looks high by comparison . Some got used to that and expect snow free before mid july based on it..

There is no actual average. It ranges almost min to almost max routinely. The standard deviation is wide. The average doesnt any reflect real snowpack.

Higher....yeah.
High...not so much. Its all normal range really over time. Apr1 ranges by +/-50% virtually all the time.

Last 20 yrs

Attachment 44730

It would appear, based on the charts you’ve shared, that the data for the time period showcased ( past 20 ) shows the majority of the years to be at or below the “average”.
The “average” being the 100 % mark.
The charts show 5-6 years out of the 20 yr span to be over the 100% mark, with the current year listed at roughly 130% & climbing.
Unless I am misunderstanding the charts and/or the meaning of the term “avg.” ?
Of course, I am trusting the scientific data here to be accurate (however risky the prospect of trusting the scientists/meteorologists). 🤣
02-28-2019, 13:34
MuddyWaters

Quote:

Originally Posted by Out of Mind

It would appear, based on the charts you’ve shared, that the data for the time period showcased ( past 20 ) shows the majority of the years to be at or below the “average”.
The “average” being the 100 % mark.
The charts show 5-6 years out of the 20 yr span to be over the 100% mark, with the current year listed at roughly 130% & climbing.
Unless I am misunderstanding the charts and/or the meaning of the term “avg.” ?
Of course, I am trusting the scientific data here to be accurate (however risky the prospect of trusting the scientists/meteorologists). 藍

So, 30% are in range of current.

And 1, 5%, is actually "average"

Point is, average doest exist. Most are far above, or below it. Its all "normal variation". Someone enterprising could calculate standard deviation. Abnormal would be generally considered 2 standard deviations from mean, or about 2-3% of time in a normal distribution.
02-28-2019, 13:39
Hikingjim

Quote:

Originally Posted by MuddyWaters

Its only a few of last 10 yrs that it looks high by comparison . Some got used to that and expect snow free before mid july based on it..

There is no actual average. It ranges almost min to almost max routinely. The standard deviation is wide. The average doesnt any reflect real snowpack.

Higher....yeah.
High...not so much. Its all normal range really over time. Apr1 ranges by +/-50% virtually all the time.

Last 20 yrs

Attachment 44730

Looks pretty high from that graph (especially if you remove 82-83).
It's the second highest year on the graph at this point for central, and high for the other regions as well. But there's lots of time left
02-28-2019, 16:32
Venchka

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hikingjim

Looks pretty high from that graph (especially if you remove 82-83).
It's the second highest year on the graph at this point for central, and high for the other regions as well. But there's lots of time left

Exactly.
Snowfall in mountain ranges doesn’t fall according to any government’s statistical reporting plan.
Snow conditions will be what they are when you get there.
See the NOBO HOBOS photos for June 12, 2017 conditions.
Wayne
02-28-2019, 16:55
MuddyWaters

Quote:

Originally Posted by Venchka

Exactly.
Snowfall in mountain ranges doesn’t fall according to any government’s statistical reporting plan.
Snow conditions will be what they are when you get there.
See the NOBO HOBOS photos for June 12, 2017 conditions.
Wayne

Its a rare year there wouldnt be major coverage in mid june still. You can still ski then often. Anyone expecting clear trail then is a fool.

Its typically late july to have passes clear, and forester may still hold snow.

You cant count on snow free.....anytime in sierra.

Aug 2 2014 dumped 2 ft on whitney and caused many hikers to not summit, and to bail off trail.
03-01-2019, 13:24
HooKooDooKu

Quote:

Originally Posted by MuddyWaters

Its only a few of last 10 yrs that it looks high by comparison . Some got used to that and expect snow free before mid july based on it..

There is no actual average. It ranges almost min to almost max routinely. The standard deviation is wide. The average doesnt any reflect real snowpack.

Higher....yeah.
High...not so much. Its all normal range really over time. Apr1 ranges by +/-50% virtually all the time.

Last 20 yrs

Attachment 44730

If you want to draw your own chart with custom dates, here's the link:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/swcchart.action
03-09-2019, 21:24
garyp

From the 3000-7000' we are in the normal zones for snow, However in the upper zones 7000+ we are above average. We are however above our rain averages which is nice. Unfortunately the idiots who control the water are already dumping more than they bring in. after speaking with several of the ranges in Sequia and Yosemite they are expecting the upper elevation trails to be open in late June/early July instead of Late May/ early June. That is a plus for those wanting lots of water sources for the JMT hikers and the rest of us who hike the High Sierra's.
03-10-2019, 08:34
MuddyWaters

Quote:

Originally Posted by garyp

That is a plus for those wanting lots of water sources for the JMT hikers and the rest of us who hike the High Sierra's.

Never a water issue in sierra.
In driest years....about 6 mi is longest "dry" stretch on jmt
Technically, most could walk jmt without carrying water if they were dumb enough to.
03-15-2019, 13:48
DaFireMedic

I think the point is to expect to encounter snow on the JMT this year. Those who have been on the JMT during the drought conditions, which was most years since 2011, might not be expecting to encounter snow, but it will be hanging around late this season. Mammoth Ski Area is expecting to stay open well into June, so higher elevations on the JMT will have snow much later than that.

The other point is that it’s not anything to worry about or to change trip plans for, just be aware and be prepared. You may end up postholing a time or two.
05-30-2019, 23:33
Out of Mind

Yosemite announced they will not be opening any of their high Sierra camps this season due to the snowpack, which as of May 1st was recorded at 176% of normal - putting in on par with 2017’s snowpack: which came in at 177% @ Yosemite.
Tioga road opened June 29th in 2017 so that’s probably a reasonable benchmark for this season.
Mammoth is currently planning on being open through early August 🏔 ⛷⛄️

info on the opening dates of Sierra passes -
http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/roadinfo/clsdlst.htm[/QUOTE]

🏔✌🏼
05-31-2019, 10:34
MuddyWaters

Quote:

Originally Posted by Out of Mind

Mammoth is currently planning on being open through 4th of July 💥 ⛄️

Mammoth is planning to be open into AUGUST...

While snow will be boot tracked in july, streams will be high into august. ALL of july will be raging.

In 2017 drowings occurred in late july........
05-31-2019, 11:38
Out of Mind

Quote:

Originally Posted by MuddyWaters

Mammoth is planning to be open into AUGUST...

While snow will be boot tracked in july, streams will be high into august. ALL of july will be raging.

In 2017 drowings occurred in late july........

Confirmed & corrected, it looks like they announced an extension May 28th stating they are now aiming for an early August closing date.
Summer skiing ⛷ 🏔 😁!

To be sure - waters will be high. Let’s all be aware, make safe descisuons. ✌🏼
06-02-2019, 23:41
Out of Mind

Hey all - I thought the forum might be interested in this article by Tom Stienstra; longtime outdoors writer for the San Francisco Chronicle - highlighting this years conditions, in regards to snow. 🏔✌🏼

Link - https://www.sfchronicle.com/travel/a...c-13907657.php
06-04-2019, 11:11
chknfngrs

I’ll be out there in late August for a week so it’s comforting to read conditions ‘should’ be favorable
06-04-2019, 12:37
MuddyWaters

Im wandering around in sierra for a week in aug.
Moved my permit from late july just to make it easy.

Hopefully less skeeters, lower creek crossings, drier meadows, clear passes.