Breaking point

[AfterParty]

What is the make or break point for the majority of folks that quit the trail early? I know some quit very deep into the trail but when does the bubble really plateau to where the majority will finish the hike?

[jersey joe]

25% has been used in citing the number of thru-hikers that drop at Neels Gap, just 31.7 miles from springer.

While I would guess this number is greatly exaggerated, this has to be the #1 place that thru hikers drop off.

The realities of hiking the Appalachian Trail just doesn't quite measure up to the dream.

Based on ATC data, roughly half make it to Harpers Ferry each year and roughly half of those make it to Katahdin.

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home...ty/2000-milers

So, there is a gradual drop off, no real "make or break point" on the trail.

[Grampie]

They quickly discover that a thru-hike is demanding and hard work. A lot of folks who classify them selves as "thru hikers", never had any interdiction of doing
a true thru.

[Puddlefish]

They quickly discover that a thru-hike is demanding and hard work. A lot of folks who classify them selves as "thru hikers", never had any interdiction of doing
a true thru.

I've never understood why some hikers feel the need to moralize about their thru hike, and put down others. It's a vacation, it's not work. The day I treat my hiking as hard work is the day I quit hiking.

[Bronk]

Some key breaking points:

(1) They realize they are going to run out of money.

(2) They realize they are going to run out of time.

(3) They are bored and realize how much further they have to go.

[TNhiker]

Some key breaking points:

(1) They realize they are going to run out of money.

(2) They realize they are going to run out of time.

(3) They are bored and realize how much further they have to go.

i would think before they think of these things, they think of how tough mentally and physically it is........

along with weather.........

[peakbagger]

They make it to Damascus and Trail Days, party heavily and then decide to go home. My perception was that the large groups of college folks traveling together started to break up into much smaller groups as they headed north farther into VA.

[Slo-go'en]

The trial looses thru hikers at all the major milestones.

The first is Neel gap. The ones who quickly discovered this wasn't such a good idea after all drop out there.
A few more likely drop out at Franklin and Hiawassee.
Then a bunch more at Fontana dam, especially those with dogs.
Damascus would be the next big drop out town. That's about 500 miles and almost 1/4 of the trail. Good enough for many.
More slowly fall by the way side all the way through Virginia, since that state never ends.
Harpers Ferry is another major stopping point, since now they've gone nearly 1/2 way. This is also good enough for many.
The remainder which make it past Harpers Ferry slowly drop out at various points depending on health, finances and ambition until finally only 20-25% of those who started get to the end.

[map man]

25% has been used in citing the number of thru-hikers that drop at Neels Gap, just 31.7 miles from springer.

While I would guess this number is greatly exaggerated, this has to be the #1 place that thru hikers drop off.

The realities of hiking the Appalachian Trail just doesn't quite measure up to the dream.

Based on ATC data, roughly half make it to Harpers Ferry each year and roughly half of those make it to Katahdin.

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home...ty/2000-milers

So, there is a gradual drop off, no real "make or break point" on the trail.

I think jersey joe has this right and I am glad he linked to those numbers at the ATC website. ATC has been making a good-faith effort to estimate thru-hiker numbers at various points on the trail for many years (I know for some years in the early 2000s they had numbers for Neels Gap and Fontana to go along with Springer, Harpers Ferry and Katahdin) and those numbers have consistently shown that the drop out percentages are not nearly so massive in the early miles on the trail as some persist in believing.

[rafe]

The dropout rate starts high, declines steadily, but never reaches zero. People have been known to quit, drop out, just weeks shy of Katahdin.

Whether the curve is 1/x or e-to the-minus-x, or something else, hard to say.

"Virginia blues" account for a lot of loss. VA is more or less the 2nd quarter of the trail. (500+ miles, starting at around mile 470.)

[AfterParty]

Maybe the masses seem to spread out after Neels giving a user the impression more people are quitting as folks start taking zero+ for injuries and such. In the books I have read and videos watched it seems like you really only see a small group frequently and a few more less frequently, and some people you only see once or twice. Would that be an accurate statement in general looking back on your hike? I ask because I'm trying to decided on if I want to do an alt nobo. I'm not sure that I will do a alt but giving it a serious consideration.

[rafe]

Maybe the masses seem to spread out after Neels giving a user the impression more people are quitting as folks start taking zero+ for injuries and such. In the books I have read and videos watched it seems like you really only see a small group frequently and a few more less frequently, and some people you only see once or twice. Would that be an accurate statement in general looking back on your hike? I ask because I'm trying to decided on if I want to do an alt nobo. I'm not sure that I will do a alt but giving it a serious consideration.

Hikers and groups are leapfrogging each other all up and down the trail. A hiker ahead might take a few days off, end up meeting people he/she left behind weeks earlier. A slow hiker may meet a faster hiker several times... because the faster one is taking zeros. Groups dissolve and re-form. Very few such groups make it intact from GA to ME or vice versa.

[Slo-go'en]

Maybe the masses seem to spread out after Neels ...

Given the large number of hikers who start out in recent years, I suspect it takes a lot longer for the masses to spread out, probably not until after the Smokies. You also have situations where the weather drives a lot of people into town and then when the weather breaks, they all head out again, making another big bubble.

I saw this at Fontana dam. A couple of days of cold rain had the shelter overflowing with people waiting it out. I said the heck with that, I'm heading into the park. One other guy decided to tag along. When we got to Mollies Ridge hut which was also overflowing with people waiting out the weather (they had all been there a day or two). So, we pushed on to Russell field which only had 2 guys in it. From there on the four of us had the park to ourselves. Meanwhile, those that waited until the weather broke had to deal with overflowing shelters.

Going SOBO in northern VA in May, I had the trail pretty much to myself after the SNP, then Trail Days finished up. All of a sudden large groups showed up on the trail. Seems they all got dropped off in bunches, more or less where they got off, with many of them "skipping ahead".

[lumberjaime]

Most of the folks who I know who dropped out did so because of physical injuries. Many of these injuries could have been prevented by making better gear choices. Another reason I highly recommend doing a rigorous "shakedown" hike WELL in advance of your anticipated start. Give yourself a month to change up your gear/test again in case you discover you hate the (insert gear item here) that everyone told you was the best thing available.

[rocketsocks]

Most of the folks who I know who dropped out did so because of physical injuries. Many of these injuries could have been prevented by making better gear choices. Another reason I highly recommend doing a rigorous "shakedown" hike WELL in advance of your anticipated start. Give yourself a month to change up your gear/test again in case you discover you hate the (insert gear item here) that everyone told you was the best thing available.

What kind of gear choice injurys we talkin' here? Exploding stoves, pack weight? What else?

[Engine]

What kind of gear choice injurys we talkin' here? Exploding stoves, pack weight? What else?

The right shoe and sock combination comes to mind as an important choice, and a packs fit is as important as its weight, maybe more so as weight goes up.

[-Rush-]

What is the make or break point for the majority of folks that quit the trail early? I know some quit very deep into the trail but when does the bubble really plateau to where the majority will finish the hike?

I was a section-hiker trying to get to Hot Springs. The arduous demand of the trail is my first response to why people quit early. The difficulty and shock to the body in the first 50-100 miles always causes some type of injury or discomfort. This is especially true if you're carrying over 30lbs which is WAY more than you need to carry (shoot for 18-22lbs or less) on a full resupply on the AT. Once you make it to the Pigeon River out of Davenport Gap you'll know whether you have what it takes to keep going. Lots of folks call it around VA or CT. If you're young, have no spouse, no job, and plenty of cash you'll probably be fine if you can endure the mental challenges.

[BonBon]

The reason I heard very often was boredom. People were just bored with walking alone all day. That part of the experience can take you by surprise-it did me. In all of my dreaming about the hike, I never once considered monotony. I struggled with it- more in Virginia than anywhere else, but by Vermont and all the way to the end the solitary walking for hours and hours was the most wonderful part of the experience. I had to detox from all of the overstimulation of my at home life before I could appreciate silence and solitude.


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[rafe]

The reason I heard very often was boredom. People were just bored with walking alone all day. That part of the experience can take you by surprise-it did me. In all of my dreaming about the hike, I never once considered monotony. I struggled with it- more in Virginia than anywhere else, but by Vermont and all the way to the end the solitary walking for hours and hours was the most wonderful part of the experience. I had to detox from all of the overstimulation of my at home life before I could appreciate silence and solitude.

Yes, this. I struggle with it even on short hikes. Trees, hills and rocks get repetitious after hours, days, weeks, months. Need something for the brain to chew on. Or retune or refocus it on local space-time. Every now and then it clicks... those waypoints you arrive at and wonder where the time went.

[lumberjaime]

What kind of gear choice injurys we talkin' here? Exploding stoves, pack weight? What else?

Like Engine said, mainly having to do with the feet. Don't just assume that because the person at the gear store loves hiking in this pair of shoes that means they will suit your feet for a long-distance hike.
Shoe problems can also contribute to busting your knees and hips, even lower back.

Less related to physical injury, but discomfort and illness are common when people think/expect their gear will perform in the worst possible conditions, because it's "the best." Knowing the limits of your sleep system (bag/liner/pad), rain gear, pack cover/trash bag liner, etc, is crucial before you rely on it on the trail. I learned this lesson the hard way on Day 2 when rain pooled in my pack cover during a downpour. Got to camp and my camp socks were wet. This could have been a very demoralizing situation. I very quickly learned how to use the pack cover in a way that prevented pooling, and never had wet gear for the rest of the trip.