Flip Flop

[jimmyjam]

Don't drink the kool-aid. The ATC is pushing an agenda. They have a goal to spread out the crowd that forms every year at the South end of the trail. They may not be all that interested in you or your misery or your odds at being a successful thru hiker. The recanting of the long list of personal testimony is a marketing ploy. Notice how they picked the testimony of only "happy campers". The traditional NOBO or SOBO has better odds of success.

Don't believe this naysayer.

[Kaptainkriz]

Great perspectives...subscribed!

The first round of bar graphs from the 2017 Voluntary Thru-Hiker Registration were posted today here:

Here are three short videos I posted on YouTube today:

Flip-Flopping the A.T.: Thru-hiker "Whiskers"

Flip-Flopping the A.T.: Thru-hikers "Bubbles and Sprout"
Flip-Flopping the A.T.: Thru-hiker "Marvel"

I will post more videos later; some are a little more in depth about both pros and cons.

[2NewKnees]

Even if the "man or woman" at the ATC is trying to keep us from doing a traditional thru hike, I still appreciate all the info and perspective I can get on doing the flip flop. When the day comes that I can thru hike the flip flop seems like a better option in some cases. Thanks for the info and links Laurie.

[Lauriep]

All ATC staff members are encouraging hikers to make well informed choices. The Appalachian Trail Conservancy's mission is to preserve and manage the Appalachian Trail – "ensuring that its vast natural beauty and priceless cultural heritage can be shared and enjoyed today, tomorrow, and for centuries to come." We want as many people as possible to enjoy the Appalachian Trail, including the opportunity to experience a thru-hike. As many staff members know (including myself) from personal experience, a thru-hike is one of the most unique, extraordinary, rewarding, and sometime life-changing journeys a person can have, anywhere on earth.

The Appalachian Trail Conservancy’s vision is "to connect the human spirit with nature – preserving the delicate majesty of the Trail as a haven for all to enjoy. We are committed to nurture and protect this sacred space through education and inspiration. We strive to create an ever-expanding community of doers and dreamers, and work to ensure that tomorrow’s generations will experience the same mesmerizing beauty we behold today."

The number of people who can embark on a thru-hike at the same place and the same time is not limitless. Already we are seeing severe crowding in some places, including in Georgia during peak nobo thru-hiking season. Last year approximately 3500 thru-hikers started in Georgia, most between the last week of February and the middle of April.

At the same time, most areas of the A.T., most of the time, are quite uncrowded. In fact, long-distance hikers walking outside of the bubbles may find it lonely. This can still be true for some flip-floppers who start early, or when attrition takes its toll. A few people may revel in the solitude, but others, especially solo hikers, avoid planning hikes at those times because it might be so lonely.

Yes, we do want to spread people out, but we are not forcing anyone to do a hike they do not want to do.

Our goal is to give hikers to tools and information to make well-informed choices so they can spread themselves out of their own accord and select the kind of hike that's best for them. We are doing everything we can to avoid the need for regulation and permits, although there may come a time that those may be required if crowding (affecting the human experience) and impacts (on soil, vegetation, wildlife, and water quality) are too great. Fortunately, we have found if we educate hikers about the issues facing the Trail, most will be responsive. An example of this is educating people about the popularity of March 1 and April 1 as a starting date. People naturally gravitate toward easy-to-remember dates. Traditionally, up to 10 times as many people have started on March 1 or April 1 as some dates in between. Since we have been telling people about the crowding that occurs on this date and generating bar graphs that show dates that other people have (voluntarily) registered for, the flow of people has evened out considerably.

I appreciate the comments by JimmyJam, KaptainKriz, and 2NewKnees, but I also appreciate Moldy's comment. When one person speaks, they may be representing what others are thinking. This forum exists for people to ask questions, express skepticism, share information, and give advice. The who purpose of this site is enable people to have dialog and hold different opinions. Thanks to Troll and all the moderators who make this valuable place available.

[moldy]

Is it possible that impacts on soil, vegetation, wildlife, water quality and human experience can all be addressed in other ways without limiting the number of hikers? Could we improve infrastructure and facilities to make space for more hikers? With bigger shelters, expanded and improved tent sites, better privies, improved water sites we may be able to accomplish the same goal. We won't even talk about improved infrastructure.

[jimmyjam]

It wouldn't hurt my feelings if they removed the shelters and just had camping areas instead

[moldy]

Most thru hikers feel different and will always stay in a shelter if space is available.

[Cheyou]

Most thru hikers feel different and will always stay in a shelter if space is available.

Do do you have data to support this ? Please show the data or webpage I can read this info.

Thom

[moldy]

The 2 non data points I have are not scientific. One has to do with the success rate for flippers. If you go to TrailJournals.net and look at "completed a thru-hike" almost every last successful thru hiker is a nobo or a sobo. Each year now for the past 8 years I have followed 10 thru hikers on their trip on Trail Journals and its rare to find a successful flipper. Hikers on TJ represent a very small percentage of hikers so it's flawed data. For the past 8 years I have hiked a month or more on the AT and I am a shelter rat and I make it a point to talk with thru hikers and it's my opinion that most will stay in a shelter if it's available.

[Lauriep]

Here are some numbers that some may find interesting. The first number is the best number we have for starters of each category; the second is the number counted at the psychological halfway point for each type of hike. For nobos and sobos, the psychological halfway point would be Harpers Ferry. For mid-Trail-start flip-floppers (referred to as "alt" to keep the column compact), that would be Baxter State Park.

Nobo 3450 1535 - 45%
Sobo 490 245 - 50%
Alt 265 125 - 47%

If you looked at those numbers, you might conclude that hiking southbound was the easiest way to thru-hike, or the best way to ensure success--at least for the first half of the Trail. Few people would argue that this is true. If the Baxter count is accurate (and I suspect it is low, because southbounders may not know the importance of checking in with the rangers, or may be shy to admit they are a thru-hiker), it may be because those who select a southbound thru-hike are in better shape to begin with. That's if they've done any research at all.

Quite a few nobos leave the Trail for good at Harpers Ferry, satisfied with having hiked a thousand miles, and not enticed to continue onward in the heat and humidity of the mid-Atlantic in summer. However, it does seem that the likelihood of being satisfied with hiking roughly half the Trail and going home after climbing Katahdin would be even stronger, especially when nobos around you are having their grand finale and heading home. Some flip-floppers have written about this online.

On the other hand, flip-floppers who can re-set their sights on the southern half of the Trail and re-focus their goals seemed especially energized and full of enthusiasm when they come through Harpers Ferry for the second leg. Thru-hikers can get into the mode of the hike just being a grind, month after month. After so long with no real change in routine, it can be easy to be focused on cranking out big miles, getting to the shelter first, and getting to town for zero days.

There are pros and cons to every approach of hiking the Trail, for sure.

[Lauriep]

I just uploaded a short interview with flip-flopper "Ranger" who started in Harpers Ferry northbound in May. She talks about the positive aspects of her flip-flop thru-hike, which she chose primarily because of timing. She also discusses the challenge of not adopting the mindset of the northbounders that the hike is done when you reach Katahdin. The link is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1c4uY2dtQDo

[Praha4]

thanks Lauriep for sharing great and helpful info!

I'm heading up in late April to get back on the AT at Manassas Gap. Section hiker on the AT ....heading NoBo.

Started from Springer in April 2010. Springer to Manassas Gap is done, took a bit longer than I figured back in 2010...but stuff happened.

Life is what happens while you're making other plans.

If I get back on the trail in late April at Manassas Gap, will likely meetup some Flip Floppers on my way north.

thanks again, great info you shared

[Lauriep]

Thanks, Praha4! Yes, things happen, glad you will be able to resume your hike next spring. I'm glad you're looking forward to meeting the flip-floppers--I know you'll enjoy them :-)