Mt Madison (NH) Rescue

[Mags]

I think a thoughtful and respectful analysis of the incident with what may have been mistakes is only helpful. Heck, a very well known book about accidents in the Whites was written (and updated in 2009) more or less covering this subject.


Some of the comments were asinine..sure. But equally asinine, IMO, are people who think it is somehow disrespectful to talk about or even point out the mistakes people may have made.

[Praha4]

Accidents happen, even with the most experienced and well equipped hikers and climbers. Personally I feel very bad for Kate and her friends and family, cannot imagine what they are going through. I appreciate the posts here from the experienced hikers from that area, I've learned a lot about winter hiking in the Whites from this thread, maybe the lessons from this tragedy will save someone else's life in future.

[peakbagger]

I have an Adams hike booked this upcoming weekend. I may take the same route, although we will probably tag Madison after we do Adams. Will this discussion change the gear I carry, not really. Will it change my approach, no. Will I carry all the gear that has been discussed to survive brutal overnight weather, probably not. My plan is to check the weather Friday night and recheck it Saturday AM. If the weather forecast changes I will shift days or postpone. If I get to Madison Hut and the weather goes bad, I turn around walk 100 feet and go back down Valley Way which is sheltered. It took me three tries to do Adams in winter the first time around and it will be there next weekend. Sure I would like to get up there on a sunny day with no wind and 100 mile visibility. I really don't need to go up there with zero vis and wind, I have been there in somewhat nasty conditions (no where near the conditions on the day of the accident) and don't need to do it again. I admit I am a fair weather hiker, I generally have the skills, the equipment but not the motivation to screw around in borderline conditions. Sure there is an adrenalin rush getting blown around in dangerous conditions but I don't need it. If I desire to get the rush, I can sign up for a overnight on Mt Washington in winter and go play around on the deck. I expect when hiking up I will encounter folks with far less gear and experience and I hope they make it down but ultimately its their call and if I can help them and they want the help I will help. I have bought a NH hike safe card and realize that its not a guaranteed rescue card. I realize that the riskiest aspect of the hike is driving to the trailhead even in winter.

Someone else has a full presidential traverse booked on Sunday which is roughly twice as long as the hikers intended route. I hope they do the same things as I and end up with no more than sore legs and a sunburn.

[Feral Bill]

Someone else has a full presidential traverse booked on Sunday which is roughly twice as long as the hikers intended route. I hope they do the same things as I and end up with no more than sore legs and a sunburn.

I'm confident we all share that hope.

[Slo-go'en]

When conditions are good you don't need too much in the way of alpine gear to summit. But when conditions aren't good the best gear in the world won't save you. The trick is knowing when and where to bail.

The forecast for this weekend looks decent. It might even be reasonably warm. Or at least not insanely cold.

[egilbe]

When conditions are good you don't need too much in the way of alpine gear to summit. But when conditions aren't good the best gear in the world won't save you. The trick is knowing when and where to bail.

The forecast for this weekend looks decent. It might even be reasonably warm. Or at least not insanely cold.

Mt Washington forecast. Not as bad as that ​weekend, but still pretty chilly. At least give yourself the choice to bailout if you need to.

• Tonight
  Clear, with a low around -14. Wind chill values as low as -44. Very windy, with a northwest wind 30 to 40 mph.
• Saturday
  Sunny and cold, with a high near 2. Wind chill values as low as -45. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.
• Saturday Night
  Mostly clear, with a low around -5. Wind chill values as low as -30. Very windy, with a west wind 30 to 40 mph.

[Slo-go'en]

Mt Washington forecast. Not as bad as that ​weekend, but still pretty chilly. At least give yourself the choice to bailout if you need to.

• Tonight
  Clear, with a low around -14. Wind chill values as low as -44. Very windy, with a northwest wind 30 to 40 mph.
• Saturday
  Sunny and cold, with a high near 2. Wind chill values as low as -45. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.
• Saturday Night
  Mostly clear, with a low around -5. Wind chill values as low as -30. Very windy, with a west wind 30 to 40 mph.

Yea, not as warm as I thought and those modest 30 mph winds are enough to kick you around some. With the wind out of the west, it's in your face going SOBO for a traverse, which is normal. A storm is moving in for Sunday night, so that will affect things up there all day Sunday too. It doesn't take much to put the summits into the clouds. I think I'll wait another week or two before heading up there myself. I didn't get above tree line all last winter, so I'd like to at least poke my nose up there once this winter.

[egilbe]

I think I'm going to hike this tiny 1700 footer near my house and look at Presidential Range from a distance.

[squeezebox]

Always give yourself room to bail out. Whether it's super winter or super summer. Freezing or heat stroke you have to know what to do. Not to mention being blown around and breaking a leg or such. She sounds like she was an incredible woman, I'm sorry she is gone. Not just her loss, but ours as well.

[psyculman]

Yea, not as warm as I thought and those modest 30 mph winds are enough to kick you around some. With the wind out of the west, it's in your face going SOBO for a traverse, which is normal. A storm is moving in for Sunday night, so that will affect things up there all day Sunday too. It doesn't take much to put the summits into the clouds. I think I'll wait another week or two before heading up there myself. I didn't get above tree line all last winter, so I'd like to at least poke my nose up there once this winter.

I go up to Crag Camp every January. Our group usually tries to summit Adams. This year, we went up on Fri. Jan. 30. The snow was the deepest we have experienced, and the temp. the coldest. Fortunately, the younger 3 of the group broke trail all the way. We stayed at Grey Knob instead. We decided not to attempt the summit, it was near 0, with a considerable wind. Looking from the Quay up to the peak of Adams, it did not seem wise to go up into that. It was crystal clear, but ground level blowing snow looked treacherous.

[peakbagger]

I actually postponed my hike to Sunday based on the forecast and worse case will take a walk up to the hut and hope the forecast was too conservative.

[Traveler]

I think a thoughtful and respectful analysis of the incident with what may have been mistakes is only helpful. Heck, a very well known book about accidents in the Whites was written (and updated in 2009) more or less covering this subject.


Some of the comments were asinine..sure. But equally asinine, IMO, are people who think it is somehow disrespectful to talk about or even point out the mistakes people may have made.

Agreed. Aviation has a high level of forensic detail to incidents like these. The investigations look at the cause and contributing factors in any incident involving aircraft damage, in-flight emergency, or injury/loss of life. Pilots learn a lot from this unemotional look at incidents. Without this level of clarity, aviation would continue to have similar accidents. Perhaps a close comparison to this incident in the Whites was the JFK Jr. crash off of Martha's Vineyard in July 1999. Taken individually, none of the facets of that flight would have resulted in a problem, collectively it killed three. Similar events took place with this woman.

If we take an unemotional look at these issues, we as a community can learn a lot. You can claim JFK Jr was doing something he loved and died the romantic death, though the reality of that is much different. Same holds true for this woman and her death. It's difficult to make a true assessment of the facts when the facts are not fully known, however it is pretty clear that much as JFK Jr opted to take a flight he had skills for under normal conditions, his physical condition was likely a contributing factor (leg injury), along with the decision of continued flight into instrument meteorological conditions he did not have a level of experience for.

I suspect a similar cause here. A hiker with some serious big mountain experience and self conviction they could make the intended trek in unfamiliar mountains that are notorious for being dangerous. Even though she may have been properly geared/provisioned for the effort, there is the likelihood she experienced several "tells" that forged the chain of what led to her death. This could have been deep snow that hampered her movement, high winds that would have blown her over or caused her to change how she moved into it, or not reaching a mile marker at the planned time (indicating she was far slower than planned). Much as many pilots do, I use the "three strikes" rule to make the turn around decision. Once the third issue pops up that is unplanned for, its time to reverse course in terrain like the Whites. Clearly something made her finally come to that decision and she did turn around, but too late to save herself.

I agree with Mags, unless we look at the forensics of things like this we don't learn anything. We also deny Kate her legacy to the hiking community in the cautionary tale she writes in her death, which can potentially save many others.

[Feral Bill]

All who are taking an interest in this have an emotional component. We have our own experiences, fears, biases, and personalities in play. Putting aside our emotions is very difficult. I suggest we do our best and all understand that sometimes we fail to do so. If we can't be totally rational, we can certainly remain civil. and perhaps prevent some tragedy in the future.

[peakbagger]

I was up Adam today 3/01. The snow is just about perfect with a well trod route to the top. Wind as usual a Madison Col but obviously more NW wind on the other side of the ridge. The Mt Washington Obs forecast for today changed substantially from NW winds dropping and shifting to SE to NW wind all day increasing with steadily increasing could cover. We took Star Lake trail to stay out of the wind. I actually wussed out about 15 minutes from the summit just before getting in the wind but the person I was hiking with did summit. Someone had been across Star Lake trail in the last day or so but it was 2/3rd hard crust with occasional rock fields up top, there are few cairns and much of the lower terrain is covered with steep snow fields that must be crossed I ascended with MSR Denalis that have very good side traction but came back with Hillsound microspikes, they were real marginal and the run out down the slope is long and ends up in boulders a misstep would be painfull at the least and possibly causing an injury. The ever popular Kahtoolas would be even dicier. If I had an ice ax I would have used it . I would not want to traverse this in poor visibility and snow. It is quite remarkable that the hiker made it up Adams and back via this route in poor visibility with gusting winds. They are between Star Lake and hut is quite windy with a sight rise up slope downwind with a fairly obvious boulder line downslope. I would guess this is the area where the hiker was found.

Lots of folks out this weekend. I did encounter two folks who apparently are immune from winter conditions. They had only the clothes on their back and hydration pouches. They were in shape but I guess they decided that if they got in trouble that others would supply them whatever gear they needed.

[iAmKrzys]

Aviation has a high level of forensic detail to incidents like these. The investigations look at the cause and contributing factors in any incident involving aircraft damage, in-flight emergency, or injury/loss of life. Pilots learn a lot from this unemotional look at incidents. Without this level of clarity, aviation would continue to have similar accidents.

While there is a tradition, if not a mandate, to release detailed aviation accident reports so that these accidents can be studied and re-examined, I am not sure if we will get to see all important details related to this accidents.

I hope I am wrong on this, but I wouldn't be surprised if the final report included a summary of Kate's traveled path but excluded detailed gps traces with locations & timestamps, so we will have to trust that we would arrive at similar conclusions when looking at these traces as New Hampshire Fish and Game will.

Separately, I wonder if Kate's PLB model will be named in the report? This event certainly won't make that PLB look good and most likely its future sales would drop. Yet I think quite a chunk of PLB industry is getting a free ride, as many of the units that don't provide tracking cannot be meaningfully tested in a variety of terrain and conditions (e.g. extreme cold) where many real life-threatening emergencies arise. When you read Amazon reviews there are many folks who are very happy because their PLB gives them a peace of mind and it has lots of bells and whistles, but none of them can attest to the accuracy of location reported by their unit. Personally, I just wouldn't trust marketing materials so much especially if my life could be at risk.

[canoe]

While there is a tradition, if not a mandate, to release detailed aviation accident reports so that these accidents can be studied and re-examined, I am not sure if we will get to see all important details related to this accidents.

I hope I am wrong on this, but I wouldn't be surprised if the final report included a summary of Kate's traveled path but excluded detailed gps traces with locations & timestamps, so we will have to trust that we would arrive at similar conclusions when looking at these traces as New Hampshire Fish and Game will.

Separately, I wonder if Kate's PLB model will be named in the report? This event certainly won't make that PLB look good and most likely its future sales would drop. Yet I think quite a chunk of PLB industry is getting a free ride, as many of the units that don't provide tracking cannot be meaningfully tested in a variety of terrain and conditions (e.g. extreme cold) where many real life-threatening emergencies arise. When you read Amazon reviews there are many folks who are very happy because their PLB gives them a peace of mind and it has lots of bells and whistles, but none of them can attest to the accuracy of location reported by their unit. Personally, I just wouldn't trust marketing materials so much especially if my life could be at risk.

It is my understanding that the conditions were worse than the PLB technical parameters

[iAmKrzys]

It is my understanding that the conditions were worse than the PLB technical parameters

Indeed, I saw a report that the unit was rated to -20F while the temperatures supposedly were lower than this. Nevertheless, some of the transmissions went through, and so one may wonder what really was the cause of inaccurate readings? I'm guessing that listening to satellite signals to acquire a gps fix takes less energy than transmitting that reading back to overpassing satellite but I could very well be wrong on this. Or maybe the location was determined in some way without use of gps? Were less accurate readings really due to low temperature, or maybe some other limitation in unit capabilities? If this model can be successfully tested within its rated temperature range then it would be really hard to blame the manufacturer, however, if there is no way to test then how does one know for sure that the model is reliable within its specs?

[Driver8]

Indeed, I saw a report that the unit was rated to -20F while the temperatures supposedly were lower than this. Nevertheless, some of the transmissions went through, and so one may wonder what really was the cause of inaccurate readings? I'm guessing that listening to satellite signals to acquire a gps fix takes less energy than transmitting that reading back to overpassing satellite but I could very well be wrong on this. Or maybe the location was determined in some way without use of gps? Were less accurate readings really due to low temperature, or maybe some other limitation in unit capabilities? If this model can be successfully tested within its rated temperature range then it would be really hard to blame the manufacturer, however, if there is no way to test then how does one know for sure that the model is reliable within its specs?

If you get a chance to read through all of this thread and some of the linked articles, there's discussion of possible factors contributing to the PLB's inaccurate reporting - cold temps being one, echoing off the mountainous terrain being another. FYI.

[Neal]

I was up Adam today 3/01. The snow is just about perfect with a well trod route to the top. Wind as usual a Madison Col but obviously more NW wind on the other side of the ridge. The Mt Washington Obs forecast for today changed substantially from NW winds dropping and shifting to SE to NW wind all day increasing with steadily increasing could cover. We took Star Lake trail to stay out of the wind. I actually wussed out about 15 minutes from the summit just before getting in the wind but the person I was hiking with did summit. Someone had been across Star Lake trail in the last day or so but it was 2/3rd hard crust with occasional rock fields up top, there are few cairns and much of the lower terrain is covered with steep snow fields that must be crossed I ascended with MSR Denalis that have very good side traction but came back with Hillsound microspikes, they were real marginal and the run out down the slope is long and ends up in boulders a misstep would be painfull at the least and possibly causing an injury. The ever popular Kahtoolas would be even dicier. If I had an ice ax I would have used it . I would not want to traverse this in poor visibility and snow. It is quite remarkable that the hiker made it up Adams and back via this route in poor visibility with gusting winds. They are between Star Lake and hut is quite windy with a sight rise up slope downwind with a fairly obvious boulder line downslope. I would guess this is the area where the hiker was found.

Lots of folks out this weekend. I did encounter two folks who apparently are immune from winter conditions. They had only the clothes on their back and hydration pouches. They were in shape but I guess they decided that if they got in trouble that others would supply them whatever gear they needed.

were the temps/winds on Adams comparable to Washington this weekend?

[peakbagger]

The temps on Adams generally are quite close to Washington especially with westerly winds, when I looked at the OBS this AM is looked like 5 degrees and 30 to 40 MPH sustained winds. There was some wind driven snow plus high clouds that obscured the sun but on Star Lake trail in few spots it got hot quick when the sun brightened. Given the wind direction, our route up Valley Way and then Star Lake trail is the most sheltered approach until the last 100 yards or so. As the winds shift south, Airline trail starts to get shelter but its rare that Star Lake has wind except when the wind shifts SE which is generally rarer as the prevailing winds are usually west/NW.